PassedThe gate fired on a 5m wick-and-close-below pdPOC ($81,240.5), but a 5m close is never the named trigger, and STATE shows this same pd_poc level already fired within the last 30 minutes — I will not re-take it without a fresh 15m trigger. The 17:15 15m candle is a mixed, indecisive bar (rejected pdEQ/pdPOC/D-Open above but also reclaimed pdVAL below), so there is no clean directional close; on top of that, Delta 5m is flat (-0.1 BTC/30m) and OI is flat, i.e. a poor reaction at the level, while 4h CVD is confirming_up against a short. No corroborated trigger = pass.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 17:25 UTC
PassedThis book already has an open long, so only a short may be recorded — but the only structural trigger present is bullish: the 17:00–17:15 15m candle wicked below pdVAL $81,148.0 and closed back above it (a reclaim, not a rejection). A short here would be fading a reclaimed support into rising CVD (confirming_up), Greed sentiment, a day that has rallied off dLow/VWAP, and would sit right on pdVAL/D-Open support — exactly the forbidden fade into a level. No bearish trigger (no 15m close below pdVAL) has printed.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 17:15 UTC
PassedThis book already holds an open long, so only a short may be recorded — but the tape offers no short. The named 15m close at 17:00 (O 81,321.9 / C 81,268.5) reclaimed both D-Open and pdPOC from below and only shallowly rejected pdEQ, which is a bullish reclaim, not a bearish trigger; 1m/5m closes are also up, CVD is confirming_up, Delta 5m +62.9 BTC, and price is in an intraday uptrend off the 80,062 low. Fading that momentum into fresh highs under pdH 81,894.7 would be a counter-trend fade with no confirming rejection close — no short trigger, and the corroborating flow contradicts the short side.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 17:00 UTC
PassedOnly a short may be recorded on this book (open long with T1 booked), and the short case is weak: the 16:30 15m candle closed UP and reclaimed D-Open, pdVAL and pdPOC, so there is no confirmed rejection close back below pdEQ $81,331.4 on the named 15m timeframe — the only rejection is a 5m wick/close, which can never be the trigger. Corroboration also contradicts a short: CVD confirming_up, 5m delta +54 BTC, funding near flat, and price trending up off dLow $80,062 through VWAP. Additionally pd_eq already fired within the last 30 minutes, so a fresh 15m trigger would be required in any case.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:50 UTC
PassedThe only direction available to me here is a short (this book already holds an open long with T1 booked), but the tape and the corroborating signals are all pointing up: the 16:30 15m candle closed strongly up, reclaiming D-Open, pdPOC and pdVAL, CVD is confirming_up, 5m delta is +59 BTC, and OI is falling on short-covering into a rising market — that is momentum into pdEQ/pdH, not a fade location. The pdEQ "rejection" is only a 1m wick-and-close; the named 15m candle closed up through three levels and merely capped at the developing day high, with no reclaim close back below pdEQ on the 15m. A short here would be fading momentum into strength against the bias with no confirmed lower-timeframe structure change — no trigger, no corroboration.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:45 UTC
PassedThis book already holds an open long, so only a short may be recorded — and there is no short trigger: the 5m close through pdPOC $81,240.5 is a bullish thrust (and a 5m close is never the named trigger), while the last CLOSED 15m (16:15) closed UP and the 16:30 15m rejection of D-Open is still FORMING per the facts block. Flow corroborates up, not down (CVD confirming_up, 5m delta +50.8 BTC, price above VWAP $80,491 and reclaiming pdPOC), so a counter-bias short into a rising tape with no confirmed 15m rejection close is exactly the fade this method forbids.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:40 UTC
PassedOnly a short may be recorded on this book (open long already running), but the tape does not support one: price is rallying off the daily VWAP/dPOC with CVD and 5m delta both confirming up, funding neutral, and the 15m 16:15 candle CLOSED UP. The 16:30 rejection of D-Open ($81,200.1) is a 5m wick-and-close-back only — not a 15m trigger — and the 15m 16:30 candle is still FORMING, so there is no confirming close to short. A counter-flow short into rising structure with pdVAL/pdPOC just overhead has no trigger and no corroboration.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:35 UTC
PassedOnly a short may be recorded on this book, and the short case here is weak: the 15m at 16:15 closed UP at $81,117.7 after a wick above D-Open/pdVAL — that is a single wick-back, not a confirmed rejection of a level price is approaching from below with momentum, and the flow contradicts it (CVD confirming_up, 5m delta +8.2 BTC confirming_up, funding mildly positive, price grinding higher off dVWAP/dPOC all session). Shorting into a rising 1m/5m/15m structure with buy-side delta is fading momentum without corroboration; the confluence for the short is missing, so I pass.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:30 UTC
PassedOnly a short may be recorded on this book (open long already), and there is no valid short trigger: the 5m wick above pdVAL $81,148 closing back below is a 5-minute close, which can never be the named trigger, and the 15m candle that closed at 16:15 was a strong UP candle that swept pdL $80,768 and reclaimed — bullish, not bearish. Corroboration also contradicts a short (CVD confirming_up, Delta 5m +24.6 BTC, price reclaiming above dVAH/VWAP, OI falling on short covering), so this is a no-trade rather than a wait.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:20 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m wick-and-reclaim of pdL $80,768.1, but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book — the named trigger must be a 15m close, and the 15m that closed at 15:45 contains no scanned level (it never traded below pdL: low $80,771.5). So there is no confirming 15-minute trigger at the level. Price is also sitting mid-range between dVAH/VWAP (~$80,453-80,523) below and dHigh/D-Open ($81,200-81,273) above with flat 5m delta (+4.5 BTC) and short-covering OI — a poor reaction, no clean location, no trade.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:05 UTC
PassedNo price action was provided and no TRIGGER FACTS block showing a closed 15-minute candle at any level — so the mandatory confirming trigger is missing entirely. Price at $80,841 sits in open space between the developing dVAH/VWAP cluster (~$80,450-80,520) and the D-Open/pdL band (~$80,768-81,200), which is a no-trade middle with CCV not in play and mixed signals (funding neutral, CVD up but OI flat/weakening into a -0.87% day). Without a named 15m close through or rejecting a tradeable level, this is a watch, not a trade.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 16:00 UTC
PassedThe only named-level event is the 15:30 15m candle closing back above pdL $80,768.1 — but that is a thin, low-volume grind up through the level from below, not a rejection or a sweep-and-reclaim of a defended level: price has been chopping between dVAL/VWAP and $80,800 all session with no defined swept extreme. Delta 5m is flat (+3.1 BTC) and volume on the reclaim candle is trivial (13 BTC), i.e. a poor reaction, and OI is falling (short covering), so the break lacks corroboration. Also, pd_low already fired recently, and price sits mid-range between VWAP $80,449 and pdVAL $81,148 — no clean location, so I pass.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 15:45 UTC
PassedThe 15:00 15m candle did wick above pdL $80,768.1 and close back below it ($80,690.0) — a technical rejection at the prior-day low from beneath — but the corroboration is against the short: CVD is confirming_up, 5m taker delta is positive (+10 BTC), OI is falling (short-covering, -1.19% on 4h) and price has been making higher lows off the $80,062 day low all session, so this is a grind up into pdL, not a failed auction with trapped longs. Reaction quality is also poor — the whole push happened on ~26 BTC of volume. With flow and structure fading the short and no bullish trigger yet (a 15m close accepted back ABOVE pdL has not printed), the confluence leg is missing and I stand aside.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 15:15 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m wick/close below pdL $80,768.1, but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book — the named 15m candle (14:45 close $80,610.0) contains no scanned level, so there is no confirming 15-minute close at or through pdL. Structure is also unclear: price has ground up all session off dLow $80,062 with CVD confirming_up and 5m delta positive, which contradicts a short at pdL, while a long into pdL resistance has no reclaim close either. No trigger = pass.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 15:05 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5-minute wick-and-close-back below pdL $80,768.1, but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book — the named-TF facts confirm the 14:45 15m candle (C $80,610.0) contains no scanned level and no 15-minute candle has CLOSED rejecting or reclaiming pdL. So the trigger is missing. Corroboration also conflicts with a short here: CVD and 5m delta are both confirming_up, price is above daily VWAP $80,444 and grinding higher off the day low, and OI is only short-covering — a short into an upward-pushing tape at a level that has not been confirmed rejected is exactly the fade this method forbids.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 15:05 UTC
PassedNo trigger: the last closed 15m (14:45 UTC, O $80,558.5 H $80,697.0 L $80,529.2 C $80,610.0) contains no scanned level — it closed in open space between dVAH/VWAP ($80,507/$80,442) below and the day open/pdL ($81,200/$80,768) above, with no close through or rejection at any tradeable level. The tape is also not trending: 1H/15m is a tight sideways grind ($80,095–$80,728) with near-zero volume on the last several candles and Delta 5m flat (+3 BTC), so there is no with-trend continuation to join either. Mid-range POC chop is a no-trade zone — pass.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 15:00 UTC
PassedThe trigger is a 15m close above dVAH $80,507.0 (14:30 candle, O $80,466.0 → C $80,558.5), but a close THROUGH a level is confirmation, not an entry — the entry must be the retest of $80,507 and price is currently $80,564.9, extended above the trigger and still inside the trigger candle's upper half with no pullback yet. Quality is also thin: the breakout printed on tiny volume (4.4 BTC on the 15m), Delta 5m is flat (+43 BTC/30m), and 4h OI is falling (short_covering -2.05%), so the push looks like short-covering rather than fresh demand — and the dVAH sits right on daily VWAP $80,441.9 in the middle of a $80,062–$81,273 day range, below the D-Open $81,200.1. No clean reaction, no retest — watch, not trade.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 14:45 UTC
PassedNo valid trigger: the only 15m close at the fired level (14:15, dVAH $80,507) closed BELOW the developing VAH, i.e. a rejection pointing down, while the 5m reclaim above dVAH points up — the two conflict and the 5m close can never be the named trigger. Price is also pinned in a $80,250–$80,730 chop between dPOC/VWAP and dVAH with flat 5m delta (+39 BTC/30m) and falling OI (short-covering -2.05%) — a poor reaction at the level. No clean directional read, so I pass on both sides.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 14:40 UTC
PassedPrice is pinned inside a 400-dollar chop band between dVAL/dPOC (~80,250-80,280) and dVAH (80,507), sitting right on daily VWAP at 80,442 — the definition of mid-range, no-trade territory. The 14:15 15m candle wicked below VWAP/pwH and closed back above, but it also closed BELOW dVAH from above, so the level reads are contradictory rather than confluent, and delta (flat, +43.8 BTC/30m) shows no reaction quality at the level. No clean directional trigger: CVD confirming up and Greed sentiment conflict with the day being down from D-Open 81,200 on short-covering OI, so the corroboration leg is missing.View thesis →
Sep 20, 2026, 14:30 UTC