← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongSwingOpenOpened Sep 18, 2026 · 08:30 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$77,828.0
T1 · 15%$78,838.0
T2 · 20%$79,557.0
STOP (original)$76,180.0
T3 · 25%$81,468.0
Runner · 40%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

Unrealized

Open — not yet resolved.

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$65,128.0

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Level-reaction long on a reclaim of stacked higher-timeframe value-area highs: the settled previous-month VAH at $77,682 sitting on the developing week VAH at $77,644 (Tier-1 monthly level plus developing weekly level — the classic "broken VAH acts as support" flip). Trigger: the 08:00 UTC 30m candle (per TRIGGER FACTS, CLOSED) wicked BELOW $77,682/$77,644 to $77,560.9 and closed back above at $77,856.2 — a reclaim/rejection close at the level, not a wick. Corroboration is separate from that candle: 4H CVD confirming_up with positive delta, open interest in a healthy uptrend (+1.37% 4h, +2.64% 24h) into an upside reclaim rather than into a short, funding only mildly positive at +0.010% so longs are not crowded, Fear & Greed 56, and price has reclaimed the week POC $76,853 and holds above daily VWAP $77,336 — value migrating up all week off the $74,855 weekly low. Entry at/just past the trigger close; stop $76,180 sits below the day low and back under the weekly POC/pwVAL zone — the invalidation of the whole reclaim leg, deliberately wider than an intraday stop and off the obvious $76,150 liquidity shelf. T1 $78,838 is the settled previous-week VAH (nearest meaningful HTF structure above), T2 $79,557 the developing weekly high, T3 $81,468 the previous-month high. R:R to T2 = 1,729 / 1,648 ≈ 1.05:1... measured honestly this sits just above 1:1, so I invoke the named-setup exception: this is the CCV-family value-area reclaim executed as a 30m swing-failure/reclaim of the previous-month VAH, the failed-auction/SFP reclaim setup whose stated win rate in the material is 80%+ (acceptance back into value), with its preconditions met — a defined pre-existing HTF level, a wick beyond it and a close back across, stop beyond the wick region, and corroborating order flow. T1 fraction kept small at 0.15 given the with-bias reclaim, larger books at the weekly high and monthly high.

Committed on the market snapshot from Sep 18, 2026 · 08:30 UTC