Short thesis

Structure: a level-reaction short through stacked weekly value support — the settled pwPOC $77,139.5 (Tier 1) with the developing wVAL $77,182.0 right on top of it; losing the previous week's POC and this week's value-area low says value is failing lower. Trigger: the 30m candle that CLOSED at 08:00 UTC (O $77,218.2 → C $76,879.4, per TRIGGER FACTS) opened above both levels and closed clean below them — a close-through rejection, not a wick. Corroboration is separate from that candle: 4H CVD reads confirming_down (Δ -364 BTC), open interest is bleeding (-3.48% on 4H, -3.14% on 24h) as price fails, price is below daily VWAP $77,422.8 and below the day/week/month opens, and the last settled weekly candle closed down at $76,748.8 off a $80,417 high — higher-timeframe weekly structure is rolling over from the August impulse. Entry at the trigger close $76,861; stop $77,700 sits back above the reclaimed pwPOC/wVAL shelf and above the 05:00 UTC swing area, wide enough for a swing and off the obvious liquidity just above $77,200. T1 $76,282.8 is the nearest meaningful HTF structure (this week's developing low / prior day low); T2 $75,907.5 is the main objective — the previous week's low and the developing month low, the major HTF level beyond T1; T3 $74,500 extends toward the next open air above the daily naked POC at $71,743.5. Risk:Reward entry→T2 ($953.5) against entry→stop ($839) is about 1.14:1, which sits in the 1:1–2:1 band, so I invoke the named-setup exception with the Failed Auction / range-boundary reclaim-style level-reaction whose stated bear-market reaction statistic is 64% — mechanically: an obvious pre-existing HTF level (pwPOC/wVAL) was held, price spent time above it, then the named-timeframe 30m candle closed back through it, with declining OI (shorts-dominant, which the material says does not invalidate) and confirming-down CVD; invalidation is defined above the shelf. The trade is with the bias (CVD confirming_down), not against it.