PassedThe 18:15 15m candle is a mixed, two-sided bar: it wicked below pwVAL ($76,481) and W-Open and closed back above them (bullish reclaim) while simultaneously wicking above dPOC ($76,854.5) and closing below it (bearish rejection) — the level interaction contradicts itself, so there is no clean directional trigger. Corroboration is also conflicting: 4h CVD confirming_up and price reclaiming VWAP/W-Open argue long, while price sits under dPOC/dVAH with OI in short-covering and 5m delta flat (no aggressive follow-through at the level) — a poor reaction. No clean setup; the tape is chop between $76,100 and $77,260.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 18:30 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m wick-and-reclaim of pwVAL $76,481 — but that is a 5-minute close, and a 5m close can never be the named trigger. The only closed 15m candle (18:00 UTC) closed DOWN through dPOC $76,854.5 and VWAP $76,812.8, i.e. the named-timeframe evidence points the opposite way to the long the sweep implies, so I have a conflict rather than corroboration. No 15m reclaim close back above pwVAL has printed; without it there is no trigger and I stand aside.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 18:20 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on dPOC/VWAP, but this exact level (dev_poc) was already attempted within the last 30 minutes, so I require a fresh trigger and none exists: the 17:45 15m close above dPOC/VWAP is not a fresh trigger and the current 18:00-18:15 15m candle is still FORMING. Price is also sitting essentially ON the dPOC ($76,854.5)/VWAP ($76,814.5) cluster — the mid-range fair-value area the method says not to open new positions at — with the day's structure still down (4H closed down, day open $78,136.7 far above) yet Delta 5m showing a bullish divergence and CVD confirming up: conflicting read, no clean location. No trade until either a rejection close back below VWAP/dPOC or an accepted 15m close through dVAH $77,169 with a retest.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 18:10 UTC
PassedThe 17:45 15m candle reclaimed VWAP $76,814.3 / dPOC $76,854.5 / W-Open $76,748.8 in one close, but price is currently sitting AT the trigger candle's close with no retest — and more importantly the reclaim is unconfirmed by flow: Delta 5m shows a bearish divergence (-106.9 BTC over 30m) into this push, 4h OI is falling (short_covering -0.94%), so the bounce off the $75,500 flush is shorts covering rather than new demand, into the heavy supply shelf $77,139 pwPOC / $77,181 dVAH just above. Poor reaction quality plus a cluster of overhead resistance only ~$300 away leaves no honest 2:1 to a T2, so this is a decline, not a wait.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 18:00 UTC
PassedThe only 15m trigger available is the 17:30 candle, which spiked to $77,261.6 and closed back DOWN at $76,681.3 — a rejection BELOW pwPOC, dVAH, dPOC, VWAP and the W-Open, i.e. a bearish 15m close. Current price $76,950 has already re-extended back ABOVE all of those levels, so there is no valid retest of that bearish trigger, and the only bullish evidence is a 5m reclaim close, which can never stand as the named trigger. Signals also conflict: 4h CVD confirming_up and F&G 69 against a 5m bearish delta divergence (-117.8 BTC) and short-covering OI into a level price just failed at — no clean setup either way.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 17:50 UTC
PassedThe 15m 17:30 candle is a huge two-sided spike (low 76,424 → high 77,261 → close 76,681): it wicked above dPOC/VWAP/pwPOC/dVAH and closed back below them, but it also reclaimed pwVAL from below — a conflicting, indecisive candle, not a clean rejection or reclaim. Price now sits mid-structure between dVAL 75,688 / pwVAL 76,481 below and VWAP 76,814 / dPOC 76,854 just overhead, i.e. no-trade chop rather than a defined level reaction, and the signals conflict (4h CVD confirming_up and OI healthy_uptrend against a bearish 5m delta divergence, CCV not in play). No qualifying trigger with corroboration, so I pass.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 17:45 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m wick-and-close-back below dVAH $77,193 — but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book, and the last CLOSED 15m candle (17:15 UTC, O 76,177.5 / C 76,439.6) neither reached nor rejected dVAH; the 17:30 15m candle that spiked to $77,261.6 is still FORMING. So the named-timeframe trigger is missing. The only genuine 15m level interaction is the 17:30 (forming) reclaim of pdL $76,282.8, which I cannot cite, and price is now sitting mid-range between dVAL $75,688 and dVAH $77,193 right at VWAP $76,814 / dPOC $76,854 — the no-trade middle of value. Signals also conflict: CVD confirming_down and a 5m bearish delta divergence (-140.8 BTC) argue short, while the 1m/5m impulse just ripped +1.2% off the flush low, so there is no corroborated read.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 17:40 UTC
PassedThe only fired level is the developing dPOC at $76,854.5, and the interaction there is a 5-minute wick-and-close-below — a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book, and the 15m candle that closed at 17:15 (and the forming 17:30/17:45 candle) has not closed back below the dPOC to confirm a rejection. Price has just run ~$800 off the 75,500 low straight into VWAP $76,806 / dPOC $76,854 in one impulse, so a short here would be chasing an unconfirmed level-reaction and a long would be entering at the extension of the thrust, not a retest. No confirming 15m close exists in either direction yet.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 17:35 UTC
PassedThe 15m close at 17:15–17:30 reclaimed pdL ($76,282.8) from below, but the broader read contradicts a long: daily/4H structure is one-time-framing lower (today's 4H closed down, day low $75,500.6 made this session, price below dVWAP $76,814, below day open and below dPOC), CVD is confirming_down and the 5m delta is a bearish divergence with net -16.5 BTC — flow is not corroborating the reclaim. The reaction quality is also poor: the reclaim came on very thin volume (13–23 BTC per 15m bar) versus the 188/156 BTC sell bars that flushed the low, and OI is only drifting, so there is no evidence of trapped shorts. Long against a down-trending tape with fading flow fails corroboration; a continuation short here would be fading momentum into the freshly flushed dLow/dVAL support region, which is forbidden.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 17:30 UTC
PassedThe fired level is pdL $76,282.8, but no valid 15-minute trigger exists there: the 16:45 15m candle closed ABOVE the level by $20 after a 5-BTC, mid-chop rotation — that is proximity/noise, not a rejection-and-close-back or a confirmed close through, and the 17:00 break below is only a 5m close, which can never be the named trigger. Price has been grinding sideways at 76.2–76.5k after the 75,500 flush, so there is no established trend for a continuation entry either, and flow (CVD confirming_down, 5m delta -19.4 BTC, OI up on the 4h) argues against buying this pd_low reclaim. No confirming 15m close = pass.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 17:05 UTC
PassedPrice action is unavailable, so I cannot name a specific 15-minute candle that CLOSED through or rejected any level — the trigger requirement is unmet. Price at $76,302.8 sits between dPOC/VWAP (~$76,827) above and dVAL/dLow (~$75,574/$75,500) below, i.e. mid-range no-man's land right at pdL $76,282.8 with CVD and 5m delta both confirming down; without a verified reclaim or rejection close at pdL there is no entry, only a candidate.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 17:00 UTC
PassedThe 15m close at 16:00 UTC did break back below pdL $76,282.8 (and rejected pwVAL $76,481), which is a bearish level-reaction trigger — but the entry rule requires the RETEST of the broken level and price at $76,248.7 is sitting at the extension, not back at pdL; more importantly the reaction quality is poor: Delta 5m is flat (+3 BTC over 30m) with no sell response, OI is a weakening downtrend (-0.64% 4h, -8.03% 24h = shorts covering, not new money), and price just bounced ~$900 off the day low $75,500.6, so a short here would be fading momentum into a freshly flushed low / dVAL $75,574 support zone — forbidden by the method. No clean, corroborated setup.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 16:15 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m close below pdL $76,282.8, but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book — the most recent CLOSED 15m candle (15:45 UTC) closed UP at $76,421.0, back above pdL, so no 15m close through or rejecting the level has printed. Price also just flushed to a fresh day low $75,500.6 and bounced, so a short here would be fading momentum back into the freshly swept low / dVAL region rather than trading a confirmed level reaction, and the long side has no reclaim close of pwVAL $76,481.0 either. Missing element: the confirming 15-minute trigger.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 16:10 UTC
PassedThe only trigger on the table is a 15m candle (15:45) that wicked above pwVAL $76,481 and closed back below it — but price is sitting just under that level after a flush to $75,500 and a bounce, i.e. this would be a short into a freshly flushed low / dVAL $75,574 support with the day low only ~900 below, so the short's objective is into support rather than open space, and it is not a with-trend pullback in open space either. Corroboration is also thin: Delta 5m is flat (Σ -3.2 BTC), open interest is a weakening downtrend (-0.71% 4h, -7.52% 24h = shorts covering, not new money), CCV bias is not in play and Fear & Greed is still 69 Greed — a poor reaction at the level. A long here would be against the down-trending structure with no reclaim close above pwVAL/VWAP, so both sides lack a clean, corroborated setup.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC
PassedThe fired level is pwVAL $76,481 but the only rejection there is a 5-minute close — no 15-minute candle has closed back below pwVAL (the 15:30 15m closed UP at $76,361.3, below the level and not a rejection of it, and the current 15m is still FORMING). So the named-timeframe trigger is missing. Additionally the structure is conflicted: price just swept the day low $75,500.6 and reclaimed pdL $76,282.8 on the 15:45 15m close (a bullish reclaim into a down tape), CVD is confirming_down while 5m delta is flat and OI is falling — so the sellers' follow-through is unconfirmed too. No clean trigger in either direction: pass.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 15:55 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on pdL $76,282.8, but this level was already attempted within the last 30 minutes and the method forbids re-taking it without a fresh trigger — and there is no fresh 15m trigger: the last CLOSED 15m (15:15 UTC) wicked above pdL to $76,428 and closed BELOW it at $76,265, i.e. a rejection back under pdL, which argues short, while the 5m reclaim and +38 BTC 5m delta argue long. That contradiction, plus 4H/1H structure firmly one-time-framing down (lower highs, lower lows, CVD confirming_down, day open $78,136 far above, price below VWAP $76,864), means the only corroborated direction is short — and a short here would be fading momentum straight into the freshly flushed dLow/pwL $75,500–75,907 support just below, which is forbidden. No clean, non-conflicting trigger: pass.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 15:35 UTC
PassedPrice has flushed to $75,500 (pwL/dLow area) and is now bouncing back up into the previous day's low at $76,282.8 from BELOW — the last closed 15m candle (15:15–15:30) wicked above pdL and closed below it, which is a rejection of pdL as overhead resistance and argues for a continuation short, but the location is wrong: the 15m low ($75,846) and the 5m profile show price sitting directly on the freshly swept pwL $75,907.5 / dLow $75,500.6 support, and Delta 5m is confirming_up (+82.8 BTC) with price reclaiming pwL on the close — fading momentum into a freshly flushed low is forbidden. Conversely a long off the pwL sweep-reclaim is contradicted by the 4h CVD confirming_down and the clear intraday downtrend of lower highs/lower lows, so the counter-bias reversal has no confirmed LTF structure change (no higher high AND higher low yet). Conflicting corroboration on both sides — no clean setup.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 15:30 UTC
PassedPrice is in a clean, aggressive intraday downtrend (dLow $75,500.6 just printed, 1H/4H making lower highs and lower lows) and the only "trigger" on offer is a marginal 15m close at 15:15 back above pwL $75,907.5 — a reclaim of a level price is still sitting on, with the dVAL $75,574 / dLow $75,500.6 immediately beneath and 4h CVD confirming_down against the long. That reclaim is not corroborated: OI is flat/declining (shorts covering, no trapped-trader fuel), funding is neutral, and the reaction at the low is a low-conviction 5m drift up rather than a decisive response leg — a poor reaction at the level. Conversely a short here would be fading momentum straight into dVAL/dLow support, which the method forbids, so there is no clean setup either way.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 15:20 UTC
PassedPrice is in a fresh downside flush — the 14:30/14:45 15m candles broke dVAL ($75,574) and printed a new day low $75,500.6, and the only "trigger" on offer is the 15:00 15m candle closing $75,916.3 back above pwL $75,907.5 by $9 on 54 BTC. That is a marginal reclaim of a level that was barely wicked, not a stop-rich sweep-and-reclaim, and it sits against a confirmed downtrend (CVD confirming_down, OI bleeding, price below VWAP $76,889 and below day open/week open). The long side has no quality trigger and a continuation short here would be fading momentum straight into the flushed day low / dVAL support, which the method forbids — so no clean setup either way.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 15:15 UTC
PassedThe 14:45 15m candle did sweep below dVAL $75,574 / dLow $75,500.6 and close back above — a structurally valid SFP long trigger — but the corroboration is against it: CCV is not in play, 4h CVD is confirming_down, OI is in a strong 4h downtrend (positions closing, not trapping), and price just lost the daily open, VWAP, W-Open and pwVAL in one impulsive leg, with pwL $75,907.5 rejected on that very same candle (wick above, close below). That leaves the long entering immediately beneath overhead supply (pwL/VWAP stack) with only a bullish 5m delta divergence to lean on — a poor-quality reaction against a clean downtrend. And a short here is forbidden: price is sitting at the freshly flushed developing low, the exact "fade momentum into support" trade the method bans. No clean setup either way.View thesis →
Sep 15, 2026, 15:00 UTC