PassedThe fired "trigger" is a marginal 15m wick-and-close-back at the developing POC ($76,343.5) — a mid-range level, the fair-value centre of the day, where the method explicitly says not to open new positions. Price is pinned between dVAL $76,183 / VWAP $76,277 and dVAH $76,544 with essentially no rotation, and the reaction quality is poor: 30bp of range on ~30 BTC, 5m delta flat (-17.7 BTC), no delta response to corroborate a short. Corroboration is also mixed — CCV short_bias and OI building favour a fade, but 4h CVD is confirming_up and the last closed 15m/1H/4H candles all closed up with price back above VWAP. Only a short may be recorded on this book, and shorting the dPOC in the middle of the range with no follow-through is exactly the poor-location entry to skip; I'd want a reaction at dVAH $76,544 / W-Open $76,748.8 instead.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 03:15 UTC
PassedOnly a short may be recorded on this book, but there is no short trigger: the last closed 15m (02:45) wicked below VWAP $76,268.9 and CLOSED BACK ABOVE it — a bullish reclaim, the opposite of a short signal — with CVD confirming_up and OI building in a healthy uptrend. Price is also sitting mid-value between dPOC $76,189.5 and dVAH $76,430.0, i.e. open space with no level-reaction and no with-trend down close. No confirming bearish close = pass.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 03:01 UTC
PassedOnly a short may be recorded on this book, and there is no confirming short trigger: the 02:30 15m candle CLOSED UP through dPOC, VWAP and D-Open (a bullish reclaim, not a rejection), and the only bearish touch is a single wick above dVAH $76,334 with price still pressing it, not a completed rejection from a strong level. Flow also contradicts a short — CVD confirming_up, 5m delta +20.1 BTC, OI building healthily — so the directional read for the only permitted side is missing its trigger and its corroboration.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 02:50 UTC
PassedOnly a short may be recorded on this book, but the short case is not there: the 15m candle closing 02:45 wicked $76,348 above dVAH $76,334 and closed just $7 below it — a marginal, low-volume poke rather than a clean rejection of an obvious, stop-rich level, and that same candle closed ABOVE dPOC $76,189.5, VWAP $76,267.9 and the D-Open $76,095.8, i.e. structure and flow (CVD confirming_up, 5m delta +32.4 BTC, OI building in a healthy uptrend) all corroborate up, not down. Fading a rising tape at a developing VA edge with a two-dollar rejection body is exactly the poor-reaction, momentum-fading trade the method forbids; no valid short trigger, so I pass.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 02:45 UTC
PassedThis book already holds an open short, so only a long may be recorded — but nothing corroborates a long here: the 15m 01:45 close rejected pdH/pwVAL/dVAH/VWAP from above and the 5m just closed below dPOC $76,181.5, price is making the session low at $76,050 with CCV bias short. There is no bullish trigger candle (no reclaim close back above dPOC or VWAP), only a 5m bullish delta divergence, which is confirmation and never a trigger.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 02:10 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m VWAP wick-and-reclaim, but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book, and the named 15m candle (01:30 close, $76,505.6) is a down candle sitting between levels — it reclaimed pdH/pwVAL but price has since slipped back below both, so there is no confirmed 15m level-reaction to trade. Direction is also conflicted: CCV bias reads short_bias with acceptance armed while CVD/delta/OI all lean up, and price is dead-centre between dVAH $76,380 and the pdH/pwVAL shelf — the middle of the range, no clean setup.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 01:55 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m close back below pwVAL $76,481, but the named 15m trigger (01:30 close) actually wicked below pwVAL/pdH and CLOSED ABOVE both at $76,505.6 — i.e. the 15m says reclaim/hold, the 5m says loss, so there is no confirmed 15m trigger in either direction at this level. Flow also contradicts the short read (CVD confirming_up, 5m delta +35 BTC, OI building in a healthy uptrend), while the CCV short_bias contradicts a long, leaving the read conflicted; price is also pinned right between pdH $76,457 and the developing day high $76,680.7 with no retest. No clean setup — waiting for a decisive 15m close through pwVAL and its retest.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 01:50 UTC
PassedThe 15m close at 01:45 (O 76,536.7 H 76,680.7 L 76,405.3 C 76,505.6) is a dip-and-reclaim of pdH $76,457 / pwVAL $76,481, which reads long — but the CCV bias is short_bias with acceptance armed, so the long is a counter-bias trade, and the first real resistance above (D-nPOC↑ $76,854.5 / W-Open $76,748.8) sits only ~$250 away against a stop below the 76,405 wick (~$300 risk), well under 1:1 to any honest T2. The short side has no trigger: the day high $76,680.7 was only wicked on a 1m/5m basis within the same candle with delta and CVD still confirming up and OI building, so there is no confirmed rejection close and no lower-low/lower-high structure change. Confluence conflicts and R:R fails — no clean setup.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 01:45 UTC
PassedThe dVAH break that fired the gate is only a 5-minute close ($76,291.0 above $76,260.0) — the named trigger must be a 15-minute close, and the last closed 15m candle (01:15, C $76,184.8) actually closed BELOW VWAP and below dVAH, so no 15m trigger exists in either direction. Price is also sitting in the middle of a very tight developing value area (dVAL 76,123 / dPOC 76,181 / dVAH 76,260 / VWAP 76,239) on near-zero overnight volume with flat 5m delta — poor reaction quality and no trade location. CCV short_bias also conflicts with the upside break attempt, so the read is unclear.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 01:20 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" is a 15m candle that wicked to dVAL/dPOC and closed back above the developing POC — but that is mid-range chop inside a very narrow developing value area (dVAL 76,123 / dPOC 76,181 / dVAH 76,260, VWAP 76,239), i.e. the no-trade middle of the profile, not a strong location: the same candle also closed BELOW VWAP, so the reaction is contradictory rather than corroborating. Nothing is trending on 1m/5m/15m (sideways 76.1k–76.4k on tiny overnight volume), so there is no with-trend continuation either, and the CCV short_bias conflicts with the mild bullish delta/CVD, leaving the read unclear. No level worth trading is being reacted to, so I pass; the real locations are dHigh/pdH 76,408–76,457 above and D-Open/pdVAH 76,095–76,035 below.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 01:15 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m wick-and-close-below the developing POC ($76,181.5) — but a 5m close can never be the named trigger, and the most recent closed 15m (00:45 UTC, C $76,242.4) is an inside-body doji-ish candle that neither closed through nor rejected a level with conviction; the 01:00 15m is still FORMING. Price is also sitting dead in the middle of a very tight developing value area (dVAL $76,121 / dPOC $76,181.5 / dVAH $76,260 / VWAP $76,239.9 all within ~$140) — the method explicitly says do not open new positions at the POC / mid-range. Signals conflict as well: CCV reads short_bias while CVD is confirming_up, 5m delta shows a bullish divergence, and OI is in a healthy uptrend — no corroborated direction, so no trade.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 01:10 UTC
PassedThe only trigger is a 15m close back below dVAH/VWAP ($76,286 / $76,249.8) after a shallow overnight drift up — but price is sitting literally on VWAP ($76,231 vs $76,249.8), i.e. at the level, not at a retest, and the reaction quality is poor: 0.4 BTC on the last candle, Delta 5m flat (+1.4 BTC), 4h CVD confirming_up and OI building in a healthy uptrend, all of which contradict a short here. That leaves the short squeezed between dPOC $76,181.5 / dVAL $76,133 / D-Open $76,095.8 immediately below — no room to a meaningful T2 without failing the 2:1 floor. Missing: corroboration and reaction quality, plus R:R.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 01:00 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on the developing day high ($76,395.7), but that is a fresh intraday extreme made minutes ago — not a pre-existing, stop-rich level, and the "wick above and close below" is really just the high of the last 15m candle (the candle IS the high), so there is no swept prior structure and no genuine SFP. The only real candidate trigger is the 00:15 15m close back above dVAH/VWAP, which points LONG — directly against the snapshot's short_bias CCV, and with no confirmed LTF structure change to justify a counter-bias trade. No clean level-reaction and no with-trend pullback retest: this is a watch, not a trade.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 00:30 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m close above dVAH $76,260 — but a 5m close is never the named trigger, and the machine-verified 15m candle that closed at 00:15 UTC actually WICKED above dVAH ($76,339.3) and closed BELOW it at $76,226.8, also closing below daily VWAP $76,228.6. So there is no 15-minute close through the level; the breakout is unconfirmed on the named timeframe and the current 15m is still FORMING. On top of that the read conflicts: CCV bias is short_bias while price/CVD/delta are pushing up into the day's high, and the day is only 20 minutes old with 95 BTC transacted, so the developing VA edges are thin and low-quality. No trigger, no corroboration — pass.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 00:20 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" is the 00:00 15m candle closing back above VWAP/dPOC — but that is the very first candle of a brand-new day (89 BTC of volume, developing value is a 250-dollar sliver) and price is sitting at the top of that micro-range having just wicked the developing dVAH/dHigh and closed back below it. That makes this location at-a-level rather than open space, and the mixed read — bullish reclaim of VWAP/dPOC on rising delta versus a rejection wick at dVAH $76,258 and a stated short_bias CCV with acceptance armed — is a direct conflict, so corroboration fails. No trend to join either: 1H/4H structure is a chop between $74,949 and $76,457 after Tuesday's flush. Waiting for a decisive 15m close through either pdH $76,457 (long, toward D-nPOC $76,854) or back under D-Open $76,095 (short, toward pdEQ $75,703).View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" here is a 5m close above the developing POC — a 1m/5m close can never be the named trigger, and the last CLOSED 15m candle (23:45 UTC) wicked above dPOC/dVAH/VWAP and closed back BELOW all of them, i.e. it contradicts the long. The day is only minutes old with 6.8 BTC transacted, developing VA is a $70 band and price is pinned between D-Open $76,095.8 and VWAP $76,141.2 — the mid of a no-trade zone with no meaningful reaction at any tier-one level. CCV bias reads short while CVD/delta read up: conflicting signals, no confirming 15m close, so I pass.View thesis →
Sep 17, 2026, 00:05 UTC
PassedThe fired trigger is a 15m rejection wick at dVAH $76,033 — but it is a marginal $16 poke on 10.4 BTC with the candle closing strongly UP (+$222 from the open, reclaiming VWAP $75,765 and pwL $75,907), which is a bullish thrust, not a rejection body: shorting it would fade a reclaim while CVD reads confirming_up, OI is building in a healthy uptrend and the 4H candle closed up off the $74,949 low. Conversely the long side has no trigger at a tradeable level — the reclaim close sits mid-range between dVAH and dPOC with 5m delta flat (+4.1 BTC), i.e. a poor, low-participation reaction. Direction is therefore contradicted/unclear rather than corroborated, so there is no clean setup.View thesis →
Sep 16, 2026, 23:30 UTC
PassedThe only trigger on offer is a 15m close back above the developing POC ($75,690.5) on near-zero volume (1.8 BTC) in dead late-session hours — a mid-profile, fair-value location the method explicitly calls a no-trade zone (POC chop, 50/50), not a value-area edge. Delta 5m is flat (-0.6 BTC) with no response at the level, CCV is not in play, and price is pinned on daily VWAP ($75,764) with dVAH/dVAL only ~$250 either side, so there is no honest 2:1 objective. Missing: a level worth trading plus any reaction quality.View thesis →
Sep 16, 2026, 23:15 UTC
PassedNo price action was provided this tick and the TRIGGER FACTS block shows no named 15-minute close I can cite, so the required trigger is missing — price sitting between dPOC ($75,690) / VWAP ($75,764) and D-Open ($75,542) is the middle of developing value, a no-trade zone by the method. Delta 5m is flat and CCV is not in play, so there is no corroboration either; I decline rather than trade proximity.View thesis →
Sep 16, 2026, 23:00 UTC