Short thesis
The call
The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.
Outcome
Sized under
Price chart
Reasoning
The day high is the top of both the 4h and 24h ranges, with pdVAH just above. Price went only $7 past it in 2 minutes on 4x the usual volume, then met -6.1 BTC of selling (1.64x the P90). The 15m candle has now closed $79 back under the level, so the SFP is confirmed rather than just a push. OI dropped about 614k as price came back under the level, so the breakout buyers are leaving. Against the trade: this is the third push into the highs today, with higher lows and OI still trending up on 4h. So I scale out early. T1 is wVAH $77,589 (tier 2, about $99 away). T2 is the pwPOC / month open cluster at $77,411 (tier 1, the real target). A small last piece goes to the day VWAP at $77,027, near the 24h POC. I picked map levels instead of the near set's moving averages, so the 60-minute exit does not apply. Stop $77,880 is about $106 (0.14%) above the $77,773.8 wick and still below the 1H swing high at $78,095.
Committed on the market snapshot from Nov 3, 2026 · 20:35 UTC