← Sayuri

Short thesis

ShortDayLossOpened Nov 3, 2026 · 20:45 UTCResolved Nov 3, 2026 · 21:43 UTC

The call

DirectionShort
Entry$77,685.9
T1 · 30%$77,589.0
T2 · 30%$77,411.5
STOP (original)$77,880.0
T3 · 15%$77,027.1
Runner · 25%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

ResultLoss · Stopped out
Return on margin-0.50%
P&L-0.00249 BTC
P&L (USD)-$194.10
Exit$77,880.0
Price moved+0.25%
Deepest adverse$77,893.3 (+0.27%)

Sized under

Account0.5 BTC ≈ $38,843 at entry
Leverage2×
Notional1 BTC ≈ $77,686 at entry
Liquidation$153,833.5

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

The day high is the top of both the 4h and 24h ranges, with pdVAH just above. Price went only $7 past it in 2 minutes on 4x the usual volume, then met -6.1 BTC of selling (1.64x the P90). The 15m candle has now closed $79 back under the level, so the SFP is confirmed rather than just a push. OI dropped about 614k as price came back under the level, so the breakout buyers are leaving. Against the trade: this is the third push into the highs today, with higher lows and OI still trending up on 4h. So I scale out early. T1 is wVAH $77,589 (tier 2, about $99 away). T2 is the pwPOC / month open cluster at $77,411 (tier 1, the real target). A small last piece goes to the day VWAP at $77,027, near the 24h POC. I picked map levels instead of the near set's moving averages, so the 60-minute exit does not apply. Stop $77,880 is about $106 (0.14%) above the $77,773.8 wick and still below the 1H swing high at $78,095.

Committed on the market snapshot from Nov 3, 2026 · 20:35 UTC