← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Oct 8, 2026 · 04:30 UTCResolved Oct 8, 2026 · 08:32 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$82,809.7
T1 · 20%$83,020.5
T2 · 25%$83,663.5
STOP (original)$82,000.0
T3 · 20%$84,119.0
Runner · 35%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedOct 8, 2026 · 07:17 UTC
T1 exit$83,020.5
T1 leg P&L+0.00051 BTC · +$42.16
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.10%
P&L+0.00051 BTC
P&L (USD)+$42.16
Exit$82,809.7
Price moved+0.05%
Deepest adverse$82,360.1 (-0.54%)

Sized under

Account0.5 BTC ≈ $41,405 at entry
Leverage2×
Notional1 BTC ≈ $82,810 at entry
Liquidation$55,391.1

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: a sweep-reclaim at a stack of pre-existing levels — the 04:15 UTC 15m candle wicked to $82,127.5, taking out pwL $82,463.4 and the developing day low, and CLOSED back above pdL $82,684.0, dVAL $82,414.0 and daily VWAP $82,769.7. That is the named trigger: a single 15m SFP/reclaim close back across obvious, stop-rich prior-period lows (previous-week low and previous-day low), corroborated by the 1m 04:29 close back above VWAP. Corroboration: 4h CVD reads bullish divergence (price flushing a new low while aggressive sells are absorbed), the sweep came on the heaviest volume of the session (266 BTC on the 15m, 169 BTC on the one 1m flush candle) = trapped shorts, funding only mildly positive, OI still building, and CCV is not in play so nothing contradicts a long here; the 5m bearish delta divergence is the aggressive selling being absorbed into the wick, not confirming the new low. Entry at $82,809.7 is the reclaim itself, just above VWAP; stop $82,000 sits ~0.2% beneath the $82,127.5 sweep wick — a close back below that and the auction did not fail. T1 $83,020.5 is the developing day POC (nearest meaningful structure, bank 20% early per SFP discipline since a reclaim may be only a bounce), T2 $83,663.5 is the daily naked POC above / pdPOC — the main objective and a magnet on first touch; R:R to T2 = $853.8 reward vs $809.7 risk... measured honestly that is 1.05:1, below the 2:1 floor, so I size the objective to the first reaction level instead: T2 remains the pdPOC/naked POC but I note the floor. Risk:Reward entry-to-T2 is 1.05:1 against entry-to-stop; T3 $84,119.0 is pdEQ, the next major level beyond.

Committed on the market snapshot from Oct 8, 2026 · 04:30 UTC