Thèse Long

Structure: a stacked support shelf — dVAL $83,187, pdPOC/naked day POC $83,105.5 and the developing day low $83,095.9 all sit within $90 of each other. Trigger: the 15m candle that closed 03:30 UTC (O 83,247.4 H 83,247.9 L 83,095.9 C 83,230.9) wicked BELOW all three (low $83,095.9) and CLOSED back ABOVE them — a swing-failure/reclaim close at a pre-existing, obvious, stop-rich level (yesterday's POC is untested naked POC support, first touch). Entry at the reclaim close price itself, stop $82,980 — ~0.24% below the sweep wick, giving the buffer the method requires. Corroboration: funding is only mildly positive (+0.0072%, no crowded long side to flush), sentiment Greed 71, the 24h OI backdrop is a healthy uptrend and price is still inside the previous week's and month's rising value; the 5m delta is negative into the low while price refuses to make a lower low — aggressive sellers not confirming the new extreme, the classic absorption read at a swept level. Counter-trend caveat: 4h CVD is confirming_down and the last 4h leg is lower — hence the larger-than-default 30% at T1, a scalp-sized book. T1 dPOC $83,345.5 (nearest structure, just above VWAP $83,302.6), T2 the day open $83,578.0, T3 pdVAH $83,910. Risk $247.5 vs reward to T2 $350.5 = 1.42:1 — but this is a scalp against the 4h CVD read, with T2 at the first reaction level (day open) as the rules permit for a counter-bias trade.