Thèse Short

Structure: a rejection AT a stacked tier-one/tier-two resistance — pwPOC $84,396.5 sitting right under the weekly open $84,404.0, also effectively the developing dVAH $84,426/day high $84,427. Trigger: the 15m candle that closed 12:30 UTC (O 84,261.6 H 84,418.6 L 84,056.2 C 84,129.5) wicked above both $84,396.5 and $84,404.0 and CLOSED back below them — the wick-and-close-back rejection, entered at the close with the wick defining the stop. Corroboration: CCV not in play, funding benign +0.0064%, OI flat into the push (no new money supporting the break — a weak breakout attempt), Delta 5m flat/slightly negative (-3.2 BTC) refusing to confirm the new high, and this is the second failure at the 84.4k shelf after yesterday's rejection from pdH $84,934.9 followed by a down-close daily. Entry here at 84,156 is the rejection close, stop 84,600 sits ~0.23% beyond the 84,418.6 sweep wick and above the weekly open cluster. T1 $83,947.5 is the developing dPOC (nearest meaningful structure), T2 $83,635 is daily VWAP/pdEQ region — the main objective and where a return to session fair value completes; R:R entry→T2 is 521/444 ≈ 1.17:1... but note this is a counter-trend scalp against a mildly up-trending intraday tape, so T2 is kept to the first real reaction level; T3 $83,431 is dVAL/D-Open. I size 30% at T1 as the named low-confidence/counter-trend reason: I hold an open long runner on this book and the intraday trend is up, so I bank more early and let the breakeven move protect the rest.