Thèse Long

Structure: Tier-1 settled previous-day low pdL $80,768.1. Price flushed below it into $80,534 (also sweeping the 5m VAL/prior-swing area) and then reclaimed — a sweep-reclaim (SFP) of an obvious prior-period extreme where stops cluster. Trigger: the 15m candle that CLOSED at 21:30 UTC (O $80,714.9 / L $80,714.9 / C $80,829.5) opened below pdL and closed back above it; the 21:25 5m close above pdL corroborates. Corroboration: HTF structure is up (18 Sep impulse from 76.2k, daily VWAP $80,553 reclaimed and now beneath price, week open far below at 76,748), funding a mild +0.0081% (no crowding), OI falling on this 4h leg = shorts/longs being flushed rather than fresh aggression, Fear&Greed 71 greed; 5m delta flat, i.e. no aggressive selling confirming the new low — classic non-confirmation of the sweep. Entry at 80,818 is the reclaim close itself, with the sweep wick $80,534 defining invalidation; stop $80,440 gives ~0.12% buffer beyond that wick per the method's "never $1 below the low" rule. T1 = last swing high / 1m-structure high and the 20:00 1H close zone at $81,130 (nearest meaningful structure); T2 = developing day high $81,432.9 (main objective); T3 = pdH $81,894.7. Risk $378, reward to T2 $615 → ~1.6:1... measured honestly: entry 80,818 → T2 81,432.9 = $614.9 vs risk $378 = 1.63:1, which sits in the 1:1–2:1 band, so I invoke the named SFP setup exception below. First profit is taken early at T1 per SFP management, stop to breakeven on T1.