Thèse Short

Structure: the 14:00 UTC 15m candle swept the settled pwPOC $79,706.5 (Tier-1) and the developing day high $79,917.3 and CLOSED back below both at $78,996.8 — a swing-failure/rejection AT the level, entered at the close since the wick itself defines the stop. Corroboration: the sweep came on a near-vertical +3% thrust off $75,907.5 into weekly value (pwVAH $79,983 / W-Open $80,300) overhead, open interest is FALLING on this rally (-1.32% 4h, -2.70% 24h = short-covering, not new longs — the method calls a price-up/OI-down move bearish and reversion-prone), funding is mildly positive, and the 5m delta has flattened (+81.7 BTC) while price made its high, refusing to confirm the extreme. This is a counter-bias scalp against the stated long_bias, so it is kept scalp-sized to the first reaction levels and I bank an above-default 30% at T1 for that named counter-trend/low-confidence reason. Stop $80,080 sits ~0.2% above the sweep wick — a close back above kills the failure. T1 = M-Open $78,511.5 (nearest structure), T2 = dVAH $77,976.0 (the developing value-area edge, main objective, and the first reaction level so the counter-bias scalp stays honest), T3 = daily VWAP $77,501.1. Risk = $985.5, reward to T2 = $1,118.5 — about 1.13:1, which fails the 2:1 floor, so I invoke the named-setup exception: this is the CCV 2.0 / failed-auction-of-the-day-high fake-out short, whose stated win rate to TP1 is 85-87%, and its mechanical preconditions hold — a standard CCV formed (day opened $76,494.9 outside and below pdVAL $77,138, CCV acceptance recorded), and the entry trigger is the fake-out of the CURRENT DAY HIGH $79,917.3 with the 15m close back below it.