Thèse Long

Structure: the Tier-1 settled pwVAL at $76,970 (with the developing dVAL $76,927 stacked just beneath it) is the level in play — a settled previous-week value-area edge that price is defending. Trigger: the 15m candle closing 10:15 UTC wicked BELOW pwVAL to $76,910 (also sweeping dVAL) and CLOSED back above it at $77,017.6 — a sweep-reclaim / SFP of the value-area low, exactly the reject-at-level shape, entered at the close since the wick defines the stop; the 10:00 15m close up and the 10:14 1m close up corroborate the response leg. Corroboration: CCV bias reads long_bias, 5m taker delta is confirming_up (+10.7 BTC/30m) refusing to confirm the new low against the level, funding is slightly negative (-0.0028%, shorts paying) and open interest is in a weakening downtrend (-0.74% 4h) — the classic sellers-losing-interest / rounded-bottom read from the material; F&G 56 Greed. Stop $76,780 sits ~0.25% beyond the $76,910 sweep wick and under the day low structure — a close back there says the auction did not fail. T1 $77,337.5 is the developing day POC (nearest meaningful structure, also just under dVAH $77,356); T2 $77,682 is pmVAH, the major objective above; T3 $78,304.5 is the untested D-nPOC / pdPOC magnet. Risk:Reward to T2 = 650.5 / 251.5 ≈ 2.6:1, clearing the 2:1 floor. T1 fraction 0.20 — near-level bank with the stop going to breakeven on the fill.