Thèse Short

Structure: level-reaction break of pwVAL $76,970 — a Tier-1 settled previous-week value-area low, which once lost is expected to flip to resistance and open rotation toward the previous-week low. Trigger: the 22:30 UTC 15m candle (O $77,004.1 / C $76,789.1) opened above pwVAL and CLOSED decisively below it — a confirmed close through the level, corroborated by the 22:40 5m close down and the 21:00 1H close down; price is still pinned at the broken level ($76,799 vs $76,970), so this entry is the shallow front-run retest into the trigger candle's body, not an extension. Corroboration: 4h CVD confirming_down, 5m taker delta -10 BTC confirming_down into the break, day trading entirely below the day open $78,265.6 and daily VWAP $77,651.8 (below value), value migrating clearly lower vs yesterday's VA ($78,653–79,604), and OI flat/rolling over so this is real supply, not a squeeze. Stop $77,180 sits above the broken pwVAL and the 22:15 local swing — a reclaim of that band kills the flip thesis. T1 $76,603.8 is the developing day low (nearest meaningful structure), T2 $76,178.9 is the previous-week low / previous-month low region — the main objective; risk $380.8 vs reward $620.3 = 1.63:1, so the floor exception is invoked below. T3 $75,500 is the next open-space extension below the pw low. Larger 30% at T1 is a deliberate counter-bias size choice: CCV bias reads long_bias and Fear & Greed 69, so I bank more at the nearer level and move to breakeven immediately.