Thèse Short

Level-reaction short at the D-Open $78,407.1 (Tier-2 open) with pdPOC $78,488.5 just above: the 15m candle closing 19:00 UTC opened above the D-Open, wicked into pdPOC ($78,499.4 high) and CLOSED below both at $78,353.2 — a confirmed close through the level, and price is still sitting right at that broken level (front-run/imperfect retest inside the trigger body), not extended beyond it. Corroboration: 4h CVD confirming_down (-546 BTC), 5m taker delta confirming_down, the 12:00 4H candle rejected hard from dVAH/dHigh $79,711 back under VWAP $78,999 and dVAL $78,653, funding flat-positive with open interest bleeding (-0.73% 4h) = longs being unwound, and today's structure is lower highs from $79,711 into a fresh dLow. Stop $78,620 sits above pdPOC/the trigger body where the reclaim would invalidate the flip; T1 the developing day low $77,988.3, T2 the settled pdL/pwL $77,576.9 (main objective), T3 pwVAL $76,970. Risk:Reward to T2 = 754.8 / 288.3 ≈ 2.6:1, clearing the 2:1 floor. Larger 30% at T1 because this is a late-session continuation into an already-flushed low with modest volume — lower confidence in a clean push to T2.