Thèse Long

Structure: settled previous-day high (pdH $79,423.1, Tier 1) has been broken to the upside by the 08:00–09:00 impulse and is now being back-tested as support, with the developing day POC ($79,471.5) sitting right on top of it — a resistance-to-support flip with two stacked references. Trigger: the 15-minute candle that closed 09:15 UTC (O 79,650.6 H 79,669.5 L 79,426.9 C 79,487.6) wicked down into/below dPOC and pdH and CLOSED back above both — the rejection-at-the-level shape, so the wick low ($79,426.9 / pdH) defines invalidation and entry is at that close/current price, which IS the retest, not the extension (day high 79,711 is untouched above). Corroboration: 4h CVD confirming_up (+250 BTC), funding only mildly positive (+0.0096% — no crowded long), OI flat with a 24h short-covering backdrop, F&G 66 Greed, and 4h/1h structure making higher highs and higher lows off the 78,402 day low; value is migrating higher (dVAL 78,971 above pdVAH 78,803), so with-value longs are the read. Stop $79,180 gives ~0.2% room beneath the sweep wick and under VWAP ($79,174.7) — a close back below VWAP/pdH kills the flip. T1 = developing day high $79,711 (nearest structure), T2 = pwVAH/mVAH cluster $79,983–80,082 (main objective, the untested weekly value edge), T3 = weekly open/prior swing high $80,417. Risk:Reward to T2 = 640/262 ≈ 2.4:1, clearing the 2:1 floor; 20% banked at T1 with stop to breakeven thereafter.