Thèse Long

Structure: the day flushed to $77,576.9 — a sweep of the settled pdL $78,627.0 and the M-Open $78,511.5, both pre-existing obvious levels with stops clustered beneath — and price has since reclaimed. Trigger: the CLOSED 15m 15:30 UTC candle opened at $78,398.1 (below the M-Open) and closed at $78,666.9, back above BOTH the monthly open $78,511.5 and daily VWAP $78,530.7 — a failed-auction reclaim close after price spent several closed candles beneath those levels; the 5m 15:40 close and 1m closes corroborate. Corroboration: CVD confirming_up (+62.2 BTC), 5m taker delta confirming_up (+27.1 BTC/30m) — flow is buying the reclaim, not fading it; funding is benign +0.0081% (normal band), OI flat/short-covering on the drop (weaker but not invalidating), F&G 69 Greed, and CCV is not in play so no bias conflicts this long. Entry here IS the reclaim close, not an extension; stop $78,190 sits below the reclaim leg's local structure (14:00-15:15 higher lows / dVAL $78,062 region) with ~0.2% buffer, invalidating the reclaim. T1 = dVAH $78,885.0 (nearest structural edge), T2 = developing day high $79,423.1 (main objective), T3 = pdPOC / D-nPOC↑ $79,629.5. R:R to T2 = 762 / 471 ≈ 1.62... — measured honestly: (79,423.1-78,660.9)=762.2 vs (78,660.9-78,190)=470.9, so 1.62:1, below 2:1; I therefore invoke the named failed-auction/SFP reclaim exception with its stated 62% reaction probability from the material.