Thèse Long

Structure: sweep-reclaim (SFP) of the settled previous-day low, pdL $78,627 — a Tier-1, obvious, stop-rich level that also anchors this week's developing low ($78,490) and sits just above the month open $78,511.5. Trigger: the 15m candle that closed 2026-09-08 05:00 UTC — it wicked to $78,490, clean below pdL, and CLOSED back above at $78,654.3 (the 05:10 5m close above $78,627 corroborates and refines the entry); entry is taken at that reclaim close per SFP rules, with the sweep wick defining invalidation. Corroboration: CCV not in play, funding only mildly positive (+0.006%, neutral), open interest weakening on the drop (shorts covering rather than fresh aggressive shorts, a weakening downtrend read), and the 5m delta print into the low is small (-6.5 BTC) — no aggressive selling follow-through at the new low, i.e. the flush lacked conviction. Stop $78,330 gives ~0.2% buffer beneath the $78,490 sweep wick, per method. T1 $78,843 = dVAL/pdVAL cluster (nearest meaningful structure, small first bank for protection); T2 $79,263.5 = developing dPOC, with VWAP $79,018 / D-Open $79,060 on the way; T3 $79,629.5 = pdPOC / naked POC above. R:R to T2 = ($79,263.5-$78,654.3)/($78,654.3-$78,330) = 609/324 ≈ 1.88... measured honestly it is ~1.9:1 — so I keep T2 at the true structural dPOC and lean on the named setup: this is the Swing Failure Pattern of a major prior-day low with candle-close reclaim confirmation.