Thèse Long

Structure: sweep-reclaim (SFP) of the developing day/week VAL at $78,943 — a pre-existing, obvious value-area edge that also sits just above the day low $78,783.5 and the M-Open $78,511.5 region, so stops cluster beneath it. Trigger: the CLOSED 15m candle at 15:15 UTC wicked to $78,783.5, well below the dVAL, and closed back above it at $78,982.1 — the reclaim close, corroborated by the 15:25 5m holding above $78,976 and the 5m taker delta printing a bullish divergence (+7.4 BTC over 30m while price made the new low), i.e. aggressive selling into the low is not being confirmed by price. Funding is slightly negative (-0.0018%) and 4h OI is bleeding (-1.45%, weakening downtrend = sellers losing interest), which supports a bounce back into value rather than a break. Entry here at the reclaim, stop $78,620 (~0.2% below the $78,783.5 sweep wick, giving real room), T1 $79,340 = the 15m profile POC / local mid-range, T2 $79,566 = daily VWAP and the dPOC region — the main objective and where the balance's fair value sits; R:R to T2 is (581/365) ≈ 1.6:1... below 2:1, so this is taken on the named SFP/failed-auction-at-value-edge basis; T3 $79,782 = dVAH. T1 fraction raised to 0.25 because this is a counter-trend bounce inside a bearish CCV short-bias day, so I bank more early and move to breakeven.