Thèse Short

Level-reaction short at the settled pdVAH $79,749 / pdPOC $79,706.5 cluster (Tier-1 settled value levels): the 14:15 UTC 15m candle wicked above $79,766.2 and CLOSED at $79,622.9 — a rejection close back below both pdVAH and pdPOC, so the wick itself defines the invalidation and the close is the entry. Corroboration: CCV bias is short with acceptance armed and price has been rejected back beneath developing dVAL $79,779 / VWAP $79,832.5 / D-Open $79,799.5 (below value = resistance overhead), 4h CVD confirming_down, funding flat-positive so longs are still paying, and OI bleeding on the 4h/24h — a weakening bid, not fresh demand. Stop $79,790 sits ~0.2% above the sweep wick and back above pdVAH/D-Open, where the rejection is proven wrong. T1 is the nearest real structure, the settled previous-day low $79,411.5 (also just under dLow); T2 is the $79,000 area, the open air below pdL toward the pwPOC/M-Open shelf; T3 extends to the Month Open $78,511.5. Risk is $191, reward to T2 is $599 — about 3.1:1. T1 fraction is 0.25 (above the default band) because this is a counter-trend-of-the-last-week fade in a low-volume tape and I want the near partial banked before the breakeven move.