Thèse Long

Structure: sweep-reclaim (SFP/failed auction) of two stacked, pre-existing lows — the settled previous-day low $76,336.8 (Tier 1) and the developing day low, with the D-nPOC at $76,239.5 in the same pocket; that is an obvious, stop-rich location. Trigger: the CLOSED 15m candle 10:45 UTC wicked to $76,178.9 (through pdL and dLow) and closed back above both at $76,610.6 — a reclaim close, corroborated by the 5m 10:55 and 1m 10:59 closes back up. Corroboration: 5m taker delta is a bearish-side divergence (only -50 BTC over 30m while price made the new low — aggressive selling failing to confirm the extreme), open interest built +3.12% on the 4h into the flush = trapped shorts/new positioning to squeeze, funding is near-neutral (+0.0033%) so longs are not crowded, and F&G 63 with the higher-timeframe daily structure still holding above the prior week's low supports a rotation back to value. Entry at the reclaim close ($76,610.6); stop $76,020, ~0.2%+ below the $76,178.9 sweep wick (a close back beyond it means the auction did not fail). T1 = daily VWAP $76,963.1 (nearest structure, and I take a larger 25% there because this is a counter-trend long against a down day with CVD confirming_down); T2 = the day open $77,353.6, the main objective and the level lost on the flush; T3 = pdPOC / D-nPOC above at $77,924.5. R:R to T2 = 743 reward vs 591 risk ≈ 1.26:1 — inside the 1:1–2:1 band, so I cite the named setup below.