Thèse Long

Structure: a sweep-reclaim (SFP) of two stacked, obvious levels — the settled previous-day low pdL $78,510.6 (Tier 1) sitting right on the developing dVAL $78,516.0, with the day's naked POC below at $78,378.5 also swept. Trigger: the 14:15 UTC 15m candle, machine-confirmed CLOSED, wicked to $78,456.9 (through pdL/dVAL and into the nPOC) and closed back above at $78,908.4 — the reclaim close, entered here at the close with the wick defining invalidation; the 14:25 5m close up corroborates. Corroboration is mixed-to-supportive: funding is mild (+0.0068%, no crowded-long pressure), OI is falling on the 4h (-0.82%) into the flush = shorts/stops rather than fresh sellers, sentiment still Greed (73), and price is holding above the week open $77,685.3 and inside the week's value; the down-CVD is what a stop-run into a level looks like, but it is why I book heavily early. Stop $78,230 sits ~0.35% below the sweep wick and below wVAL $78,229 — a close back beneath means the auction did not fail. T1 $79,293.9 is the last 1h swing/session mid-structure (nearest meaningful level, 30% banked early per SFP discipline since a reclaim can be only a bounce and CVD is against me); T2 $79,756.8 is daily VWAP and the day POC/VAH shelf — R:R entry-to-T2 is $848 reward vs $678 risk = 1.25:1, so I cite the mentor's SFP-at-a-major-low framework whose recorded stat is a 62-64% probability of a reaction from the swept low (its preconditions hold here: an obvious, pre-existing settled prior-day low with stops clustered beneath, a genuine wick through it on the day's largest 5m volume, and a confirmed close back above the level). T3 $80,216.2 is the day open, the extension level beyond VWAP, with a runner above.