Thèse Long

Structure: the 12:00 UTC 15m candle wicked down to $78,624.1 — sweeping the developing day low ($78,624.1) and, critically, spiking below the settled pdPOC $78,913.5, the dVAL $78,672.0 and the D-Open $78,934.8 clustered right there — and then CLOSED back above all three at $79,021.2. That is the named 15m trigger: a sweep-reclaim / SFP close back across a pre-existing, stop-rich level cluster (pdPOC + dVAL + day open), with the 12:10 5m close back above pdPOC corroborating the timing. Entry is at the reclaim close (current price IS the reclaim), stop $78,480 sits ~0.2% beyond the $78,624 sweep wick — a close back under kills the failed-auction read. Corroboration: funding is slightly negative (-0.0024%, shorts paying, no trapped-long crowd), OI +2.13% on the 4h into this flush = new shorts opening into the low that the reclaim now traps, price is holding above the week open $77,685 and above the settled pdVAH region on a day whose value is building well above the previous day's — value migrating higher. Delta 5m is still negative into the low, which is exactly the absorption profile at a reclaimed level rather than a confirmation of new lows. T1 $79,736.5 = developing dPOC (nearest meaningful structure, and just under daily VWAP $79,938.5); T2 $80,431.0 = developing dVAH, the main objective; T3 $81,226.5 = developing day high. Risk to stop = $541; reward to T2 = $1,410 → 2.6:1, clearing the 2:1 floor. t1_fraction 0.30 is above the default band because this is a counter-momentum reclaim against a down-trending 4h close and negative CVD — banking more at the near dPOC/VWAP shelf is the honest hedge, with the stop to breakeven the moment T1 books.