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The fired trigger is a technicality, not a setup: the 21:30 30m candle wicked $0.50 below wVAL $63,330 and closed back above — no meaningful sweep, no stop-rich liquidity grab, and it printed on 11.5 BTC of volume (dead tape), so there is no reaction quality to trade. Corroboration also conflicts: CVD shows a bearish divergence, price is below daily VWAP ($63,756) and below the day/week POCs, and the 4H structure has been making lower highs and lower lows since $65,444 — a long here fades that momentum right into the developing week low $63,128 rather than off a defined swept level. With one loss on the book and the last three outcomes all losses, this fails the stricter bar; I want either a real sweep of wLow $63,128.7 with a 30m reclaim close, or a with-trend short trigger from an in-between location, not a half-dollar wick.
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