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The trigger is a 30m close $12 below the developing weekly POC ($64,738.5 vs $64,750.5) — a marginal break of a mid-range, still-developing level that sits essentially on the daily VWAP ($64,767.6) and inside a two-day balance, i.e. the middle of the range, not a tradeable extreme. Corroboration is missing/conflicting: CVD shows bullish divergence, OI is falling (shorts covering, not new positioning), and the higher-timeframe tape is sideways between wVAL $63,650 and wVAH $65,003 with no clear trend to continue. With two consecutive losses on this book I need a stricter-than-usual setup, and this is a proximity/chop trade rather than a clean level reaction.

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