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The 02:30 15m candle closed down through the dPOC/dVAL cluster and pdL ($64,746.2), so the trigger is a fresh break, not a retest — price is at the extension ($64,691) with no pullback into the trigger candle's body, and entering here is chasing a flush into a Tier-1 settled level (pdL) rather than trading its reaction. Volume/OI corroboration is also poor: OI is flat-to-falling (-0.86% 4h), 4h CVD shows bullish divergence against the down move, and the break came on tiny overnight volume, so a downside continuation lacks conviction while a reclaim of pdL has not printed either.

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