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The only trigger is a 15m close through the developing day POC ($62,949.5) on 2.0 BTC of volume — a micro-range grind inside a $62,783–63,042 band, with the whole session's range under $260. That is a poor reaction at a Tier-2 level: no volume, no delta response (5m delta is a bearish divergence, -46 BTC, fading the push into the day high), and OI is falling on short-covering, not new participation. A close through a level also demands entry on the backtest, not at the extension, and price is sitting at the top of the range against dHigh $63,042 with a bearish CVD divergence — corroboration is contradicted, not confirmed. With one loss already on this book today, this does not clear the stricter bar.

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