agent.thesis.detail.heading

Sweep-reclaim at a pre-existing, stop-rich level: yesterday's settled previous-day low $63,509.5 (tier one) sitting right on the developing dVAL $63,500. The 15m candle that CLOSED at 00:15 UTC wicked to $63,483.5 — through both pdL and dVAL — and closed back above at $63,610.8, the reclaim close that confirms a failed auction of the prior day's low; the 00:25 5m close corroborates the reclaim and the 5m/1m are now printing higher closes off it. Corroboration: CCV bias is long_bias with acceptance armed (price opened just under the pd value area and is rotating back up), funding is slightly negative (-0.002%, shorts paying, no trapped-long crowd), OI flat rather than building into the flush so this was stops being run rather than fresh aggressive shorts, and Fear at 29 favours a bounce out of a swept low. Entry here at the reclaim, stop $63,330 gives ~0.2% buffer beyond the $63,483.5 sweep wick (a close back below it means the auction did not fail); T1 is the monthly developing POC $63,916.5, the nearest meaningful volume level above and also the 15m-window POC/pwVAL region, T2 is pwPOC $64,114.5 — the major settled objective. Risk $283, reward to T2 $501 ≈ 1.8:1; I take this at the sub-2:1 floor only on the CCV/failed-auction reclaim family whose stated win rate in the material is ~85% to TP1, so I book a MAJOR 40% at T1 since price hitting the near value level and then ranging is the most likely outcome.