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The reclaim of pwVAL $63,652 is only a 5m close (23:10) — the named trigger must be a 15m close, and the 23:00 15m candle (low $63,509.5, close $63,704.1) is a marginal reclaim while the current 15m is still FORMING. More importantly the flow contradicts a long here: CVD confirming_down, 5m delta −150 BTC, price just broke pwVAL/pwLow on the heaviest volume of the day, CCV bias is short_bias with failed acceptance, and F&G in Fear — a low-quality, unconfirmed bounce into a fresh downside break rather than a stop-rich SFP with responsive buying. No qualifying trigger with corroboration, so I wait.
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