Thèse Long

Structure: the developing month POC (mPOC $63,916.5) — a higher-timeframe reference level in the TRADEABLE set. Trigger: the 2026-07-24 13:30 UTC 30m candle wicked below the mPOC (low $63,832.4) and CLOSED back above it at $64,053.3 — a reclaim/SFP close back across the swept level, with the sweep wick ($63,832.4) as invalidation. This is a level-reaction/sweep-reclaim entry, not fading momentum: price flushed the mPOC and closed back above. Corroboration comes from separate signals: CVD bullish divergence (price pressing lows while CVD holds, +12 BTC), and the mPOC sits inside a cluster of support with wLow $63,665.4 / wVAL $64,857 nearby and monthly value building — the reclaim traps the shorts that opened on the flush. Stop $63,700 sits below the sweep wick and just above wLow with a buffer, wider than an intraday stop and off the obvious $63,832 liquidity. T1 $64,637.5 = pwPOC, the nearest meaningful HTF structure between entry and target; I bank 0.4 here because it is a near, minor-ish level and this is a counter-flush reclaim with only moderate confidence in reaching T2. T2 $65,557.5 = wPOC, the main HTF objective above. Risk = $353, reward to T2 = $1,504 → ~4.3:1, clearing the 2:1 floor and justifying the wider swing stop. Funding neutral (+0.01%), Fear (28) favors a bounce from a swept support.