Thèse Long

Setup: sweep-reclaim (SFP / failed auction) of the previous-day low at $63,750.0 — a settled, obvious prior-period level with stops clustered beneath it, and the 1m/5m range low ($63,710) sits just under it. Trigger: the 2026-07-12 00:00 UTC 5m candle wicked below to $63,710 (sweeping pdL and the range low) and CLOSED back above at $63,811.8 — a confirmed reclaim close back across the swept level; the 5m/1m recent closes are up, and price is holding above daily VWAP ($63,795) and the day open ($63,744). Corroboration: CCV bias is long, funding is only mildly positive (+0.0087%, no crowded-long premium forcing a flush), OI flat (not new longs trapping), and F&G at 26/Fear favors a bounce off a swept low. Entry at the reclaim close near current price; stop just below the sweep wick at $63,690 (a close back below invalidates the failed auction). T1 at the naked day POC / prior-day structure region $64,138.5 (nearest meaningful level, first partial booked, take early per SFP method); T2 at the prior-day high $64,440.9. Risk = ~$115, reward to T2 = ~$636, R:R ≈ 5.5:1, clearing the floor.