Thèse Long

This is a failed auction at the previous week's low, the first touch of that level. The 4H closed beyond it once, then closed back inside. While price was beyond the level, open interest rose about $4.6M and taker delta was -313 BTC. That means new shorts opened under the level and are now trapped. Volume on the take candle was about 15x the median, and there were $845k of long liquidations, which looks like a flush. The first close back was only $3 above the level, so I waited for a second close. The 20:30 close at $73,552.5 holds well above the level with positive delta. The daily and 4H trend are down, which I weigh but do not use as a gate; the weekly is still bullish. Stop: $72,450, below the new extreme of $72,617.5, a little wider than the card's 0.2% buffer. For TP1 I chose the naked day POC at $75,759.5 instead of P1. It sits just above the previous week's VAL and POC, where the first reaction is likely. TP2 is the range POC at $77,212.5. In a daily downtrend that is a more realistic swing target than the far range edge at $87.4k. The runner (40%) is left for the trail toward the previous week's high and the range top.