Thèse Short

Price swept the most obvious high around: the day high, which is also the 1H swing high and the top of the 24h range ($76,230-$77,731). The sweep was a stop hunt: it went $35 deep, stayed beyond the level for only 3 minutes, and traded at 12x normal volume. Sellers stepped in hard, with -11.4 BTC of delta (2.95x the 24-hour P90) in the push minute, and open interest dipped instead of rising, so the sweep did not bring in a wave of new longs. Price has now closed back below the level at $77,640, confirming the failure. Two things argue against the trade: the 4H open interest is in an uptrend, and the follow-through selling was light (0.74 BTC). Those are reasons to size carefully, not to pass. Stop: $77,840, about $73 past the $77,766.5 wick (0.09% of the fill), so the risk is about $200. Targets: I skip N1, the $77,605 fib, because it is only $36 away and is a weak tier-3 level. T1 is mEQ/wEQ at $77,486, where several levels sit together. T2 is $77,411, the previous week's POC (tier 1) with the month open beside it. T3 is the day VWAP at $76,990, about 3.2R. The runner works toward the dPOC and the other side of the range.