Thèse Short

I was waiting for a 1-minute close back below the level and I got it: 13:34 closed at $77,543.0. In the minute at 13:32, buyers took +45.9 BTC at the high, yet price fell from $77,712 to $77,631 and could not get past $77,731. Passive sellers soaked up that buying, so those buyers are trapped above the level. The two minutes after drifted back under the level on thin volume, with no fresh buying. Since the sweep, buyers are net +43 BTC and price is back below the level, so it fits the trapped-buyer pattern. Location: the level is the 4H range high (1.00 of the 4H range). It also sits next to pdEQ at $77,649 and the 0.786 fib. That makes it an edge, even though it is mid-range on the 24h range. Stop: $77,810, about 0.1% above the new extreme of $77,731.2. If price trades there, the break was accepted. Targets: - pwPOC $77,411.5 (tier 1, sits next to the month open): book 30%. - dPOC $77,052.5 (with dVAH $77,085 and the 4h POC $77,037): book 25%. - Day VWAP $76,808: book 20%. - The runner (25%) trails toward the lower value. I skipped N1 at $77,486.5: it is too close to be worth booking. The main risk is that the 4H open-interest trend is still rising and the bounce off $76,230 has been strong.