Thèse Short

The swept level is two levels in one: the 1H swing high and the previous day high at $77,629.7. It sits at the top of the 24h range (position 1.00) and just above the 4h range, so this is the range edge, not the middle. The break was a trap. There were 4 minutes beyond the level on 42x the median volume, with +7 BTC of taker buying, a marked wick to $77,730.8, and no acceptance: price is back under the level, and also under the dVAH and mVAH. At 02:08, 6.4 BTC of buying still pushed price down to $77,537. That means passive sellers took the buying. Then at 02:10 came a -2.52 BTC push, 3.35x the P90, as open interest rose about $145k. That looks like shorts stepping in while the longs are trapped. The 4h move into the level was weak (+0.08%), so there is no impulsive breakout to fade. Stop: $77,810, about $79 (0.1%) past the swept high. That is tighter than the default but still beyond the wick and below the EMA 55 1H at $77,803. Targets: C1 is SFP 2.0 at $77,271, the last 1H swing low, and books the largest share at 40%. C2 is the opposite edge of the 24h range, the pdL and 1H-SL at $76,940, booking 25%. C3 is the D-nPOC at $76,831.5, booking 10%, and a 25% runner remains. I chose the course set over the near set because the near targets are only moving averages $117 away, and they would bring the 60-minute exit into play. Risk: the day VWAP and dEQ cluster sits right under price at about $77,540, and the night tape is thin. So there may be some chop before the move lower, which is why I kept the stop tight.