Thèse Short

The 13:45 15m candle swept the 1H swing high $80,245.7 by $52.6 and closed back under it at $80,169. The sweep sits at the top of the 4H range (1.00). Confluence: pdL $80,240, the 30m SMA200, the fib at $80,303 and the MEDIUM VAL at $80,200. The sweep minute had 34x median volume and +14 BTC delta, and it closed on its low, so those breakout buyers are trapped. That is the textbook trap shape. The 4H CVD is in bearish divergence: +145 BTC of taker buying over 4 hours bought price only back into the range, so passive sellers are absorbing. No flow against the sweep has printed yet. That is the main risk, and why T1 is near and large. Waiting risks losing the entry: N1 is only $142 away. Stop $80,458.6: 0.2% past the $80,298 wick and just above the pwPOC at $80,448, so a move through tier-1 value means acceptance. T1 W-Open $80,013.8 (tier 2, 20 touches, next to the day VWAP and 4H POC) books 30%, then the stop goes to entry. T2 SFP 2.0 / 1H-SL $79,687.7 books 30%. T3 the RL / dLow $79,563.1 (tier 1, the 24h low) books 15%. The 25% runner trails.