Thèse Long

This is a long on a retest of the previous day's high ($80,694, tier 1) from above, after it broke. At 21:30 price broke through it on heavy volume (386 BTC on the 15m) and has stayed above it for two hours, holding $80,700–80,900. This candle is the first real test of the broken high from above. One 1m candle dipped $39 below it on about 20 BTC of selling, and price had climbed back to $80,803 by the close. The 15m candle opened and closed above the level, which makes it a clean failed breakdown. Sellers who hit the old high could not hold price below it. That is also the most likely source of the -7.1 BTC Delta reading (partial coverage): selling into the dip that got absorbed, not a lasting push down. The wider picture supports the long. Session CVD is confirming up (+431 BTC), open interest is rising steadily (+4.8% over 4h), funding is neutral at +0.01%, and price is up off the week's lows. It sits above the daily VWAP, the week open and the 4H value area. The targets line up with the levels: T1 is today's high at $81,179, where the spike was rejected. T2 is the naked daily POC at $81,496, close to this month's developing POC at $81,527. T3 is the previous week's VAH at $82,457. The stop at $80,493.5 sits just above the pwPOC/dVAH zone. I would rather put it below that zone. But a stop that wide would push the reward-to-risk to T2 below 2:1, so I am leaving the proposal's stop alone. Risks: it is late in the session, liquidity is thin, and the Delta coverage is only partial. Breakeven after T1 limits the damage if this fails.