Thèse Short

Short the pdEQ at $80,076 after price broke down through it and came back to test it from below. The 23:30 candle opened below the level and wicked $109 through it to $80,185. Stops above the level got taken, buyers couldn't hold it, and the candle closed back below at $79,948. On the 5m the rally was a quick spike that faded straight back below the level. Order flow agrees with the short: Delta 5m is confirming down at -18 BTC (coverage partial) and CVD is confirming down too. The context fits a continuation down. The daily has been making lower highs since the $84.8k top. Price is below the session VWAP ($80,381) and below today's value area (VAL $80,230), so there's no acceptance back into value. 4H open interest is weakening in a downtrend. The proposed stop at $80,345 is above dVAL $80,230, so a move that reclaims value takes us out. The weak points: the candle swept both sides and closed roughly where it opened, not a strong rejection. T1 is the low just made at $79,700 / pwL area, which could hold as a double bottom. And the weekly close at 00:00 can bring a jolt in thin volume. The small 15% at T1 with the stop moved to breakeven covers those risks. T2 at the pdL liquidity of $79,079 gives 2.19R.