Passe — pas de trade

The level counts on paper: pwPOC, tier 1, sitting with the VWAP and the developing POC. But nothing at it looks like a real swing failure. (1) The sweep is tiny: the wick went $21.8 below pwPOC, barely over the $15 minimum, and the low of $81,557.7 does not take out a swing low anyone was watching. The obvious lows that hold stops are much lower: the day low at $80,991, the prior-day low at $80,789 and the prior-week value area low at $80,669. (2) There is almost no participation. The SFP candle traded 1.8 BTC, among the lightest of the session, and the 1m bars during the wick show 0.0-0.3 BTC. So no stops were run and no sellers were absorbed at the level. Delta 5m is flat at +3.2 BTC on partial coverage, which shows no absorption either way. (3) Where price sits: a point of control is the middle of value, where price tends to settle, not an edge to fade from. Price has been rotating between about $81,400 and $81,890 all session, and the 15m and 1H profiles have their POCs right here, so this is an ordinary mid-range rotation and not a failed auction at an extreme. (4) The trend is against it: yesterday's daily candle rejected the $84.2k highs and closed down near its low, the last 4H candle closed down, and the CCV is not in play. The bullish CVD divergence is the only point in favour, and on this little volume it is not enough. T1 at $81,903 is the top of today's range, which has already capped price twice. I would rather wait for a sweep of the real lows ($80,990 / $80,790) or a clean reclaim from the edge of value.