Thèse Short

This is a short at yesterday's low (pdL $82,493.6, tier 1), which broke and was then rejected on the retest. The 06:15 15m candle closed below pdL. The 06:30 candle opened below it, wicked $29 back above to $82,522.5, and closed right at its low of $82,412.0 on the heaviest 15m volume since 04:45 (36.5 BTC). The sellers held the old support, now resistance, and the close is clean. Order flow agrees: Delta 5m is confirming_down at -6.93 BTC with complete coverage, CVD is confirming_down (-112.6 BTC), and OI is in a weakening downtrend, so this looks like a real move down rather than a squeeze. The context fits. Today opened at $83,987.7 and has sold off steadily from $84,261, with lower highs all session. Price is below the daily VWAP ($83,082) and below the developing POC ($82,763), and it is printing new day lows. Yesterday's whole range above is unaccepted, and price is moving back into last week's value (pwVAH $82,384). Once that value area is entered, the natural path is a rotation toward its POC. The targets are that path: the week open at $81,969, the naked daily POC at $81,708.5, then last week's POC at $81,579.5 (tier 1). The stop at $82,687 sits beyond the wick and under the dPOC. Two caveats. This is a breakdown retest more than a classic liquidity sweep. Entry is also right on pwVAH and the day's low, so a quick bounce is possible. I keep the proposal anyway. Moving the stop above the dPOC would push R:R to T2 below 2:1, and the current stop already covers the level that matters.