Thèse Long

Structure: the 13:45 UTC 15m candle swept the pwVAL $83,072 / prior-week low region and the developing day low $82,684 (an obvious, stop-rich pre-existing level) and CLOSED back above pwVAL at $83,113 — a textbook sweep-reclaim / SFP of a settled Tier-1 weekly value-area low, with the reclaim close as the named 15m trigger (wick to $82,684, close $83,113). Corroboration: 4h CVD reads bullish_divergence into a new low, open interest is in a weakening downtrend (-0.29% over 4h — sellers losing interest at the lows), funding is flat/neutral at +0.0010% so no trapped-long overhang, and the sweep produced the heaviest volume bar of the session (121 BTC) with an immediate V-shaped buyback — the trapped-shorts signature. Entry here is the reclaim close itself; stop $82,480 sits ~0.2% beyond the $82,684 sweep wick and below pwL $82,463 region invalidation — a close back under that kills the failed-auction read. T1 $83,663.5 is the developing day POC (nearest meaningful structure), T2 $83,955 is daily VWAP (session fair value, the classic SFP first-rotation objective), T3 $84,284 the developing dVAH. Risk is $642.5, reward to T2 is $832.6 — but note the dominant trend is down and the 5m delta is still confirming_down, which is the named low-confidence/counter-trend reason I bank a larger 30% at T1; R:R to T2 is ~1.3:1, within the 1-2 band, cleared by the named SFP/failed-auction reclaim setup below and by T2 being capped at the first reaction level (VWAP), i.e. a scalp shape, not a stretched target.