Thèse Long

Structure: sweep-reclaim (SFP) of the settled pwPOC $85,290.5 — a tier-one level — which coincides with the developing dVAL $85,303.0 and the developing day low, a triple-confluence, stop-rich location. Trigger: the CLOSED 15m candle of 03:30 UTC wicked to $85,268.5 below both pwPOC and dVAL and closed back above at $85,421.0 — the reclaim close is the entry, taken at the close near current price. Corroboration: Delta 5m shows a bullish divergence (Σ +8.4 BTC) refusing to confirm the new low, funding is benign at +0.0047%, open interest is easing (shorts covering) and sentiment is Greed; CCV is not in play so nothing contradicts a bounce back toward value. Stop $85,090 sits a few hundred below the sweep wick (buffer ~0.2%) where the reclaim is proven wrong; T1 is daily VWAP $85,638 (nearest meaningful structure, booked larger at 30% because this is a counter-move scalp against a down-closing 4h CVD and I hold an open short on the swing book), T2 is dVAH $85,762 (main objective, the value-area edge), T3 the developing day high $86,083. R:R entry→T2 is 348.6 / 323.4 ≈ 1.08:1 — in the 1–2 band, so I invoke the named-setup exception: swing failure pattern / failed auction at the range low, the instructor's quoted 62% reaction probability from the low that made the pattern, with its preconditions met (obvious pre-existing swept level, wick beyond it, confirmed close back inside, tight invalidation at the wick).