Thèse Short

Structure: the pdPOC / pwPOC / naked-day-POC cluster at $85,290.5 — a Tier-1 confluence level — has been lost. Trigger: the 15:30 UTC 15-minute candle (O 85,513.0 H 85,524.9 L 85,125.1 C 85,285.7) OPENED above $85,290.5 and CLOSED BELOW it, a clean close-through of the level; price is currently sitting right back at that broken level ($85,265) — the imperfect retest inside the trigger candle's body — so this IS the retest entry, not the extension. Corroboration: CCV bias is short with acceptance FAILED, 4h CVD confirming_down, 5m taker delta confirming_down (-107.6 BTC/30m), price is far below daily VWAP $86,064 and below the D/W open $86,470, developing value is rolling lower, and OI is up +3.26% on the 4h into the drop — new shorts/trapped longs, which supports continuation rather than short-covering. Stop $85,620 sits above the 15:00–15:30 local swing and comfortably back inside the lost POC (level reclaimed = thesis dead). T1 $85,125 is the developing day low (nearest structure), T2 $84,824 is pdVAL (main objective), T3 $84,651 is the previous day low. Risk is $355, reward to T2 is $441 — about 1.24:1, below the 2:1 floor, so I take the named-setup exception: this is the CCV 2.0 / standard CCV short shape — the day opened at $86,470 above pdVAH $86,113 (outside prior value), failed to hold, and has been accepted back below pdVAH with repeated 30m closes inside value, with the day high $86,941 faked out and reversed; the stated win rate on that setup in the material is ~85% to TP1, and the official CCV short target is the previous day value area low $84,824, exactly my T2. T1 fraction is 0.20 given T1 is only the developing day low and reaching T2 requires a full rotation to pdVAL.