PasseThe 11:15 UTC 15m candle did reject developing VAH $63,766, but after two consecutive losses it fails the stricter confluence bar: 4h CVD and OI confirm an uptrend, price remains above VWAP, and 5m delta is flat rather than showing a bearish response. A short from $63,689 to the next major objective at dPOC $63,475, with a properly buffered stop beyond the $63,773 sweep, offers only about 1:1 R:R, below the required 2:1 floor.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 11:30 UTC
PasseThe 10:45 UTC 15m candle did close through pdPOC $63,658.5 and the current tape is retesting it with confirming CVD/delta, but the honest buffered invalidation below the trigger swing ($63,559.2) is about $63,430 while the next major objective is pdVAH $63,981, giving only ~1.1:1 from $63,695. After two consecutive losses this fails the stricter payoff bar, and no qualifying ≥60% named setup applies.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 11:05 UTC
PasseVWAP $63,650.2 and settled pdPOC $63,658.5 are valid nearby levels, and the closed 10:45 UTC 15m candle confirmed a bullish close through them with bullish CVD and confirming 5m delta. However, a close-through is confirmation rather than entry, and no post-trigger backtest has occurred yet; after two consecutive losses this book requires the stricter responsive entry, so this is awaiting retest.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 11:00 UTC
PasseThe 10:15 UTC 15m candle closed through developing VAL $63,379, but a downside break requires a backtest before entry; current price remains at the breakdown close, so the retest trigger is missing. Under the stricter two-loss filter, confirming-down 5m delta is not enough against the 4h bullish CVD divergence, weakening OI, and nearby developing day low support—await a clean dVAL backtest/rejection or a reclaimed-level reaction.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 10:30 UTC
PasseThe 10:00 UTC 15m candle did close below the $63,440.5 D-Open, but this level already fired within the last 30 minutes and, after two consecutive losses, the stricter book requires a fresh 15m trigger rather than a re-take. The short is also poorly corroborated by bullish 4h CVD versus flat 5m delta, and an honest stop beyond the local $63,529.6 swing to the $63,241.1 day low yields less than 2:1 R:R; pass pending a fresh close-and-retest.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 10:25 UTC
PasseThe 10:00 UTC 15m candle closed through D-Open $63,440.5, but no post-trigger backtest has occurred, and price is already pressing into nearby developing VAL support at $63,399. With two consecutive losses requiring a stricter setup, flat 5m delta, weakening 4h OI, and choppy local structure do not provide the quality reaction or aligned continuation flow needed; await a fresh retest/rejection or reclaim trigger.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 10:15 UTC
PasseThe 09:45 UTC 15m candle did reject developing POC $63,475.5 (low $63,455.1, close $63,508.5), but this is a mid-value POC reaction on only 3.7 BTC with flat 5m delta and no convincing OI participation. Broader confirmation is conflicted—4h CVD confirms down, price remains below VWAP, and after two consecutive losses this does not meet the stricter quality bar.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 10:00 UTC
PasseThe 09:30 UTC 15-minute candle did sweep and reclaim the developing POC at $63,475.5, but this is mid-value/POC chop rather than a clean edge, and the reaction was extremely low-volume with weakening 4h OI. With two consecutive losses requiring a stricter bar, positive 5m delta is insufficient against confirming-down 4h CVD, price below VWAP, and unclear local structure, so broader corroboration and reaction quality are missing.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 09:50 UTC
PasseThe 09:15 UTC 15m candle did sweep and reclaim the $63,460.8 W-Open, but the stricter post-two-loss filter is not met: 4h CVD confirms down, 5m delta is flat, OI is weakening, and the latest reaction volume is poor. The level and structural trigger exist, but broader/order-flow corroboration is missing, so no long is justified.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 09:45 UTC
PasseThe 09:15 UTC 15m candle did sweep and reclaim the tradeable D-Open at $63,440.5, but this does not meet the stricter bar required after two consecutive losses: the reaction had low volume, 5m delta is flat, OI is weakening, and 4h CVD confirms down while price remains below VWAP. The level and trigger exist, but corroboration is conflicting/poor, so pass.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 09:30 UTC
PassePass under the stricter two-loss filter: the D-Open at $63,440.5 is in reach, but the fired reclaim is only a 5m close and cannot trigger this book; the closed 09:00 UTC 15m candle merely grazed the level by $0.4, which is not a meaningful stop-rich sweep/rejection. Corroboration is also poor/conflicted—4h CVD confirms down, 5m delta is flat, OI is weakening, and reaction volume is light—so there is no qualified 15m trigger with aligned flow.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 09:25 UTC
PasseW-Open $63,460.8 is in play, but no authoritative 15-minute trigger has closed: the latest closed 09:00 UTC 15m candle finished at $63,462.9, still above the level, while the move below belongs to lower-timeframe candles and the current 15m candle is forming. With two consecutive losses and price also testing the dVAL/open cluster, the stricter setup requires a fresh 15m rejection, loss-and-retest, or sweep-reclaim close; confirming-down CVD/delta alone cannot trigger entry.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 09:20 UTC
PasseThe 09:00 UTC 15-minute candle technically rejected developing VAL $63,493, but the reaction is below the stricter bar required after two consecutive losses: the sweep was only $1.3, volume was thin, and 4h OI was flat, so there is no meaningful participation/trapped-position confirmation. Although 5m delta and 4h CVD confirm downside, the healthy-uptrend 24h OI backdrop conflicts; pass rather than short this weak dVAL reaction.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 09:15 UTC
PasseThe 08:15 UTC 15m candle did sweep and reclaim developing dVAL at $63,495, but this does not meet the stricter bar required after two consecutive losses: the reaction was weak, with low volume, 5m delta confirming down, 4h CVD confirming down, and OI weakening. The level and structural trigger exist, but corroboration is missing and flow contradicts the long.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 08:30 UTC
PasseThe 07:30 UTC 15m candle did reject VWAP $63,665.8 and settled pdPOC $63,658.5, with bearish CVD/delta and positive funding supporting a short, but the reaction printed on only 16.7 BTC volume while 4h OI was declining, failing the stricter quality bar after two consecutive losses. With a properly buffered stop beyond the $63,668.5 wick near $63,800 and the next major objective at dLow $63,241.1, the honest R:R is only about 1.5:1, below the 2:1 floor.Voir la thèse →
04 août 2026, 07:45 UTC