PassedThe fired level is pdPOC $76,731.5, but the only close through it is a 5m candle (00:20 UTC) — a 1m/5m close can never be the named trigger, and the most recent CLOSED 15m (00:00–00:15) actually closed UP at $76,825.0, i.e. it rejected the day high/dVAH/VWAP but did not close through pdPOC. So there is no valid 15-minute trigger at this level. Structure is also unclear: price is chopping inside a tight 76,559–77,031 overnight range with day open, week open, VWAP, dPOC and pdPOC all stacked within ~$120 of each other — mid-range, no trend to join — and the 4h CVD reads bullish divergence against a short while 5m delta reads down, conflicting signals.View thesis →
Sep 14, 2026, 00:25 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" here is a brand-new 15m candle (00:00 UTC) that spiked to $77,031 and closed back at $76,825 — a rejection of pdEQ/VWAP/dVAH, but it is the FIRST candle of a day whose developing value area is only ~$27 wide ($76,828–76,855), so the "level" it rejected is noise, not a formed location; the developing profile has no volume behind it yet (74.7 BTC on the day). Corroboration also conflicts: 4h CVD reads bullish_divergence and OI is rising into the lows while the 5m delta is bearish, and price sits within $12 of D/W-Open — mid-range, not at a tradeable extreme. No clean level-reaction, no established trend to continue, and any short from $76,760 to the nearest real objective (pdPOC/D-nPOC $76,731.5) is a sub-1:1 scalp against a stop above $77,031. Passing.View thesis →
Sep 14, 2026, 00:20 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" here is a fresh 15m candle that is the day's opening candle — it spiked to $77,031 and closed back at $76,825, below VWAP/dVAH/dPOC, but the developing value area is barely 200 dollars wide and the levels it "rejected" (dVAH $76,855, dPOC $76,850.5, dVAL $76,830) are all clustered within 25 dollars of each other and of price: this is mid-value chop with no separated location to trade against. Signals also conflict — 4h CVD reads bullish divergence and funding is flat/negative while the 5m delta is bearishly divergent, CCV is not in play, and open interest is a weakening downtrend, so no corroborated directional read. Any short from here would be a fade of a one-candle wick into the day/week open support at $76,748.8 just below, which the method forbids; the honest next objective (pdPOC/D-nPOC $76,731.5) is under 100 dollars away and cannot clear 2:1 against a stop above $77,031.View thesis →
Sep 14, 2026, 00:15 UTC
PassedThe only trigger on offer is a 5-minute wick-and-close-back under daily VWAP ($76,949) — a 5m close is never a valid named trigger on this book, and the last CLOSED 15m candle (23:45 UTC, O 76,768.2 / C 76,748.8) is an inside-range doji at the day/week open, not a close through or rejection of any level. Price is sitting mid-structure between dPOC/VWAP (~76,900) and D-nPOC/pdPOC (76,731.5) with a compressed developing value area, so there is no established trend to join and no reaction to trade. Missing element: the confirming 15-minute trigger close.View thesis →
Sep 14, 2026, 00:10 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m wick-and-close-back at the developing POC ($76,901.5), but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book — the last CLOSED 15m candle (23:45 UTC, O $76,768.2 H $76,797.0 L $76,705.4 C $76,748.8) shows no reaction at dPOC at all, and the current 15m candle is still FORMING. On top of that, STATE says this dev_poc level already fired within the last 30 minutes, so I demand a fresh 15m trigger before re-engaging. Price is also sitting on top of VWAP $76,906.9 / dPOC $76,901.5 / dVAL $76,901.0 — the middle of a very thin overnight balance, exactly the POC-chop no-trade zone.View thesis →
Sep 14, 2026, 00:10 UTC
PassedThe fired level (dVAH $76,794) is a developing value-area edge only five minutes into a brand-new day/week session — the profile has 4.5 BTC of volume behind it, so dPOC/dVAH/dVAL/VWAP/D-Open are all stacked within $45 of each other and carry no meaning yet. The only named 15m close (23:45 UTC) is a tiny inside candle that "closed below" every one of those levels by dollars, which is noise, not a rejection trigger; the 00:00 5m wick above dVAH is a 5m event and can never be the named trigger. Reaction quality is also poor: Delta 5m is flat (+7.4 BTC), OI is drifting down (-0.25% 4h), funding is mildly negative, and there is no CCV bias — nothing corroborates a directional read here. No tradeable level with a real trigger, so I pass.View thesis →
Sep 14, 2026, 00:05 UTC
PassedNo clean trigger: the 15m that closed at 00:00 is a doji sitting exactly ON the D/W-Open at $76,748.8 — it neither closed through a level nor produced a rejection wick-and-close-back of any size (its dip under pdPOC/D-nPOC $76,731.5 was a 26-dollar poke on 14 BTC, not a stop-rich sweep). Reaction quality is poor — 5m delta flat (+1 BTC), CVD confirming down while OI bleeds (-0.25% 4h), i.e. no aggressive participation at the level to confirm either side. Price is also mid-structure between pdPOC/D-Open and pdEQ $76,898.8 with a fresh day just opened and no developing value yet — the no-trade middle.View thesis →
Sep 14, 2026, 00:00 UTC
PassedThe only trigger on the table is a 15m close back above the developing day POC ($76,731.5) — but the dPOC is the middle of the developing value area, which the method explicitly treats as a no-trade zone (fair value), and price is currently sitting right on it with no room to either edge without an entry in the middle of the range. Corroboration is also mixed: 4h CVD is confirming_down and OI is in a weakening downtrend while 5m delta is confirming_up, so the directional read is not clean. A long from here into dVAH/pdVAL $77,095–77,104 with invalidation below the $76,559 swing gives well under 2:1 to any honest T2, so there is no clean setup.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 23:45 UTC
PassedThe fired trigger is a 15m rejection at the developing dPOC ($76,731.5) pointing short, but the corroboration contradicts it: price just flushed ~700 pts into the developing day low / dVAL region ($76,435/$76,420) and the week/month VAL ($76,481/$76,724), so a short here is fading momentum into strong support — forbidden by the method. Delta 5m is a bullish divergence (+11 BTC while price makes new lows) and open interest is falling into the flush (shorts covering, weak), further refusing to confirm the breakdown. No long trigger exists either: no reclaim close back above dPOC/VWAP has printed, so there is no clean setup in either direction.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 23:00 UTC
PassedThe 15m 22:15 candle did wick below dVAL $76,762 and close back above it ($76,764.0) — technically a reclaim — but the level is a developing value-area edge, not a pre-existing stop-rich structure, the "reclaim" is a $2 close above the line, and the reaction quality is poor: tiny volume (13.5 BTC), 5m delta confirming_down (-15.3 BTC/30m) and 4h CVD confirming_down, i.e. aggressive flow is still selling into the level rather than defending it. Flow, OI (weakening downtrend) and the sharp 22:00 breakdown from the dPOC/D-open all point lower, so a long here is against the read and a short at the low of a flush is the forbidden fade into a freshly flushed low. No clean, corroborated trigger — pass.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 22:30 UTC
PassedThe 22:00 15m candle is a single impulsive breakdown through dPOC/D-Open/pdPOC/pdEQ/VWAP in one bar — a close THROUGH the levels, which is confirmation, not an entry; the entry is the retest and no pullback has occurred (price is sitting at 76,817, near the low of the move and just above dVAL 76,766, i.e. the extension, not the retest). Entering here would be chasing the flush into the developing VAL support, which the method forbids; and the same candle wicked below dVAL and closed back above it, making the immediate read ambiguous (possible bullish reaction at dVAL versus continuation short). I want price back at VWAP/pwVAL $76,949–77,000 for a proper short retest, or a confirmed reclaim close for the long.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 22:15 UTC
PassedThe only trigger on offer is a 15m close back below pdVAH $77,260 — but the surrounding structure is dead chop: price is pinned between dPOC $77,230.5, D-Open $77,234.5 and pdEQ $77,231.0, i.e. squarely in the middle of the profile / POC-chop no-trade zone, not at a clean extreme. Reaction quality is poor as well: 15m volume of 1.6–3 BTC into the level, 5m delta flat (-3.4 BTC/30m) with no delta response, and OI barely moving (-0.24% 4h), so there is no evidence of trapped traders to fuel a rotation. Confluence/reaction quality is the missing leg, not just the trigger — pass.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 22:00 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5-minute wick-and-reclaim of pdVAH ($77,260.0), but a 5m close is never a valid trigger on this book — and the machine-verified 15m facts state the last closed 15m candle (21:45 UTC, O 77,346.0 / C 77,317.9) contains no scanned level, so there is no named 15-minute trigger at pdVAH. Structurally the tape is also a dead, ultra-low-volume overnight coil between dPOC $77,230.5 / D-Open $77,234.5 / pdEQ $77,231.0 and dVAH $77,367.0 — mid-range chop with flat 5m delta (−2.1 BTC), weakening OI and a 4h CVD bearish divergence against price, i.e. a poor reaction and no directional corroboration. No trigger, no clean location: pass.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 21:55 UTC
PassedThe 15m close at 21:15 UTC did poke the dVAH ($77,367) / developing day high ($77,377.6) and close back below, but this is a marginal, low-quality location: the "swept" level is a developing intraday VAH/high formed minutes ago, not a pre-existing obvious stop-rich level (pdH sits above at $77,457.7, un-swept and front-run), so criterion (a) of the sweep-reclaim fails. Reaction quality is also poor — 3.7 BTC on the trigger candle in a dead-volume session, OI flat, with price merely grinding back up through dPOC/D-Open all afternoon. No clean, corroborated trigger at a tier-one level: pass.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 21:30 UTC
PassedThe fired "trigger" is a 15m candle that dipped $20 below pdVAH ($77,260) and closed $27 above it on ~11 BTC in a dead 21:00 UTC tape — that is noise, not a sweep of an obvious stop-rich level, and pdVAH sits on top of dPOC $77,230.5 / D-Open $77,234.5 / pdEQ $77,231.0, i.e. price is pinned in mid-value POC chop, the 50/50 location the method tells me not to trade. Corroboration also fails: CVD is confirming_down, 5m delta flat/negative, OI weakening with a 24h short-covering backdrop, and the day is a rotation inside the prior day's value — no directional edge either way. With dVAH $77,351 barely $60 above and dVAL $76,758 below, there is no honest 2:1 objective from here anyway.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 21:15 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" here is a 15m candle whose low tagged dPOC/D-Open/pdEQ ($77,230.5) and closed $30 above it — a micro-rotation inside the 1m/5m value area on 0.3–11 BTC of volume, not a meaningful reaction: no delta response (5m delta flat, +10 BTC/30m), OI only short-covering (-0.45% 4h), and CVD reading bearish divergence against a price that is pinned to the daily open. Price is also mid-structure between dVAH $77,351 / pdH $77,457.7 above and VWAP $76,940.9 / dVAL $76,754 below — the middle of the profile, the no-trade zone — with no established trend on 15m to join. Missing element: reaction quality/corroboration at the level, so this is a watch, not an entry.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 20:45 UTC
PassedNo clean trigger: the 15m close at 20:15 only nudged back above pdEQ/D-Open on near-zero volume (0.3 BTC) inside a 60-dollar chop band, and the level that actually fired — pdVAH $77,260 — was wicked and closed back below on the 15m, i.e. a rejection with no reaction quality at all (Delta 5m flat, OI bleeding on short-covering, CVD bearish divergence). Additionally pdVAH was already attempted within the last 30 minutes, so I demand a fresh, higher-volume 15m trigger. Price sits mid-range between dVAH $77,108 and pdH $77,457 with 4H/15m structure sideways — no trend to join and no edge location worth committing to.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 20:35 UTC
PassedThe fired "trigger" at pdVAH $77,260 is a 4-tick wick on a 15m candle with 0.3 BTC of volume — a dead, holiday-thin tape, not a rejection: no delta response (5m delta flat, -0.1 BTC over 30m), OI only drifting on short-covering, and the whole last three hours has ranged $77,159–$77,353 with sub-1 BTC candles. Price is also pinned mid-structure between pdEQ/D-Open ($77,231/$77,234) below and pdH $77,457 above, i.e. POC-chop with no edge worth trading. Reaction quality, not just the retest, is what fails here, so this is a decline rather than a wait.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 20:30 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" is a 15m candle (18:30 UTC) that dipped 11 dollars below pdVAH $77,260 and closed 50 above it on 3.4 BTC — that is noise inside a dead, low-volume drift, not a swept, stop-rich level with a genuine reclaim; price has been chopping in a 100-dollar band all afternoon. Reaction quality also fails: 5m delta is flat (-1.9 BTC/30m), OI is falling (short covering, -0.96%), so there is no participation confirming an upside push into pdH $77,457.7 / the developing day high $77,353.5 just overhead, which caps any long's reward. No clean level-reaction, no established trend for a continuation, and no quality corroboration — pass.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 18:45 UTC
PassedThe 17:45 15m close through pdVAH/pdEQ/D-Open ($77,260/$77,231/$77,234.5) is a technically valid thrust trigger, but it came on almost no volume (1.2 BTC) with 5m delta flat (-1.1 BTC over 30m) — a poor reaction at the level, and price is already sitting AT the trigger candle's extreme near dHigh $77,353.5 rather than at a retest, so entering here is the chased extension the method forbids. Reaction quality plus the missing retest both block it, and overhead pdH $77,457.7 sits only ~$190 away, leaving no honest 2:1 to a meaningful T2.View thesis →
Sep 13, 2026, 18:00 UTC