← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Oct 1, 2026 · 18:15 UTCResolved Oct 1, 2026 · 18:47 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$84,827.4
T1 · 20%$85,008.0
T2 · 30%$85,593.6
STOP (original)$84,420.0
T3 · 20%$85,751.0
Runner · 30%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedOct 1, 2026 · 18:37 UTC
T1 exit$85,008.0
T1 leg P&L+$21.29
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.21%
P&L+$21.29
P&L (BTC)+0.00025 BTC
Exit$84,827.4
Price moved+0.04%
Deepest adverse$84,712.8 (-0.14%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage5×
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$70,985.3

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Level-reaction long at the settled pdVAH $84,682 (Tier-1 settled previous-day value-area high, now flipped to support after price broke above it on the 17:00–17:45 15m thrust). Trigger: the 18:00 UTC 15m candle (CLOSED per facts block) wicked below $84,682 to $84,605.1 and closed back above at $84,806.4 — a rejection AT the level, so the wick defines the stop and entry at the close/current price is valid rather than a chase. Corroboration: CVD confirming_up (+77.3 BTC), OI healthy_uptrend +0.77% on the 4h (new longs, not short-covering, into the breakout), funding benign at +0.0068%, price above daily VWAP $83,928 and above day open/dPOC, and today's developing value is building above the prior day's POC — value migrating higher, so long dips is the bias. Stop $84,420 sits ~0.25% below the rejection wick and back under the W-Open $84,404 cluster, which is where the flip is proven wrong. T1 $85,008 is the developing day high (nearest real structure); T2 $85,593.6 is pdH / previous week high-side objective — R:R entry-to-T2 is $766 reward vs $407 risk ≈ 1.9:1, so T3 $85,751 (pwVAH) extends beyond. Taking 20% at T1 because the day high is a known supply pocket and a clean rejection there is likely before continuation.

Committed on the market snapshot from Oct 1, 2026 · 18:15 UTC