← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Sep 29, 2026 · 09:00 UTCResolved Sep 29, 2026 · 14:16 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$83,799.1
T1 · 20%$84,302.0
T2 · 30%$84,934.9
STOP (original)$83,540.0
T3 · 20%$85,751.0
Runner · 30%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedSep 29, 2026 · 11:49 UTC
T1 exit$84,302.0
T1 leg P&L+$60.01
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.60%
P&L+$60.01
P&L (BTC)+0.00071 BTC
Exit$83,799.1
Price moved+0.12%
Deepest adverse$83,693.4 (-0.13%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage5×
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$70,124.8

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: settled previous-day VAH at $83,743 (tier-one settled value level), reclaimed after yesterday's flush and now being back-tested as support with the developing dVAH $83,852 and daily VWAP $83,495.8 just beneath. Trigger: the 08:45 UTC 15m candle wicked BELOW $83,743 (low $83,720) and CLOSED ABOVE it at $83,807.5 — a rejection-at-the-level (SFP shape) whose wick defines the stop, so entry is taken at the close/current price $83,799.1, not an extension. Corroboration: 4h CVD confirming_up (+89.9 BTC), open interest healthy_uptrend (+1.53% 4h, +2.63% 24h) with mildly positive funding (+0.0071%, normal) — new money long, not crowded; Fear & Greed 73; the 04:00 4h candle closed up off $82,891 and price has built higher lows all session, with value migrating back above pdVAH. CCV is not in play, so nothing contradicts the long. Stop $83,540 sits ~0.24% below the sweep wick ($83,720) and beneath VWAP, the real invalidation. T1 = the developing day high $84,302 (nearest meaningful structure, also today's swing high); T2 = pdH $84,934.9, the main objective and prior-day high liquidity, with pwPOC $84,396.5 and W-Open $84,404 on the way; T3 = pwVAH $85,751. Risk:Reward to T2 = $1,135.8 / $259.1 ≈ 4.4:1. Shallow 20% at T1 since T1 is only the intraday high and I have decent confidence in the pdH magnet; stop moves to breakeven on T1.

Committed on the market snapshot from Sep 29, 2026 · 09:00 UTC