Short thesis

Structure: rejection AT the settled previous-week VAL $83,388 (tier-one) stacked with the developing dPOC $83,408.5 — price broke below pwVAL this session and the retest from beneath failed. Trigger: the 15m candle that closed 04:00 UTC (O 83,377.8 H 83,416.3 L 83,266.5 C 83,266.5) wicked above both $83,388 and $83,408.5 and CLOSED back below them — a rejection at the level, entered at the close with the wick defining the stop; the 5m and 1m closes at 83,266.5 corroborate. Corroboration: 4h CVD confirming_down (-90.8 BTC), OI rising +0.40% into the 4h downtrend (new shorts / trapped longs from the 84.9k spike), price below daily VWAP $83,801 and below the day open $84,404, and 1m/5m/15m structure is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows — nothing contradicts the short. Stop $83,560 sits ~0.2% above the rejection wick/last 15m swing (83,477); T1 $83,129 is the developing day low / dVAL, T2 $82,771 is the 24 Sep swing low and lower edge of the 4h range, T3 $81,323.5 the nearest naked POC below. R:R to T2 = (83,278-82,771)/(83,560-83,278) = 507/282 ≈ 1.8:1... measured honestly against the structural stop it is 1.8:1, so I am keeping T2 at the first real reaction level and taking a larger 20% at T1 to bank the near structure early, with breakeven immediately after.