Long thesis
The call
The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.
Outcome
Sized under
Price chart
Reasoning
Structure: the developing dPOC $85,671.5 sitting directly on daily VWAP $85,674.1 — a two-level confluence of session fair value. Trigger: the CLOSED 14:30 UTC 15m candle wicked below both ($85,402.8 low, sweeping the intraday shelf) and closed back above at $85,835.2 — a reclaim/rejection AT the level, which per the method may be entered at the close since the sweep wick defines the stop; the 14:40 5m up-close corroborates. Corroboration: 5m taker delta is a bullish divergence (+17.9 BTC into the new low), funding is benign at +0.003%, price is holding above VWAP/dPOC (above value), yesterday's daily candle closed strongly up and the day is an inside-ish rotation between dVAL $85,325 and dHigh $86,579.9. The CCV short bias and 4h CVD bearish divergence argue the other way, so this is kept as a scalp: T2 is the first reaction level (the developing day high / D-Open region), keeping R:R honest. Stop $85,210 is ~0.2% beyond the $85,402.8 sweep wick and below dVAL — a close back there kills the reclaim. T1 $86,098 is dVAH (nearest structure), T2 $86,579.9 the developing day high/D-Open cluster, T3 $87,357.8 the previous-day high. Risk $658, reward to T2 $712 — 1.08:1, so I am taking a larger 30% at T1 given the counter-bias (CCV short_bias) nature of this scalp and low confidence in the full rotation.
Committed on the market snapshot from Sep 22, 2026 · 14:45 UTC