← Sayuri

Short thesis

ShortDayWinOpened Sep 17, 2026 · 07:20 UTCResolved Sep 17, 2026 · 12:01 UTC

The call

DirectionShort
Entry$76,430.4
T1 · 20%$76,246.0
T2 · 25%$76,095.8
STOP (original)$76,700.0
T3 · 20%$75,923.9
Runner · 35%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedSep 17, 2026 · 10:02 UTC
T1 exit$76,246.0
T1 leg P&L+$24.13
T2 bookedSep 17, 2026 · 11:40 UTC
T2 exit$76,095.8
T2 leg P&L+$54.72
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.79%
P&L+$78.85
P&L (BTC)+0.00104 BTC
Exit$76,430.4
Price moved-0.16%
Deepest adverse$76,669.3 (+0.31%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage5×
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$94,944.6

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: Tier-1 pwVAL $76,481 stacked with pdH $76,457 and the developing dVAH $76,539 — a dense supply shelf directly overhead. Trigger: the 15m candle that CLOSED 07:15 UTC wicked to $76,569.8, through pwVAL, pdH and dVAH, and closed back BELOW all three at $76,430.0 — a rejection AT the level (wick-and-close-back), so entry is at the close/current price with the wick defining invalidation; the 5m 07:15 close ($76,458.5 back under $76,481) corroborates. Corroboration: CCV bias is short with acceptance armed, funding is mildly positive (+0.0073%) with OI building +0.99% on 4h into this shelf — new longs being trapped at the highs — and 5m delta is flat (+7.5 BTC) refusing to confirm the new price extreme. Stop $76,700 sits ~$130 above the sweep wick (real room, not a dollar past). T1 $76,246 is dVAL (nearest meaningful structure, just above VWAP $76,330 which is the first sticky level); T2 $76,095.8 is the Day Open, the main objective; T3 $75,923.9 is today's developing day low. Risk = $269.6, reward to T2 = $334.6 → ~1.24:1 — below 2:1, so I invoke the counter-extreme scalp shape allowed in the direction of the bias: this is WITH the CCV short bias, and the named setup is the Swing Failure Pattern / failed-auction rejection at a Tier-1 level (pwVAL) whose preconditions all hold — obvious pre-existing level, sweep wick beyond it, close back below on the named 15m candle, tight invalidation at the wick, corroborating OI/funding/CCV.

Committed on the market snapshot from Sep 17, 2026 · 07:20 UTC