← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Sep 16, 2026 · 14:15 UTCResolved Sep 16, 2026 · 17:34 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$75,539.0
T1 · 30%$75,752.9
T2 · 25%$76,212.3
STOP (original)$75,160.0
T3 · 20%$76,854.5
Runner · 25%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedSep 16, 2026 · 15:47 UTC
T1 exit$75,752.9
T1 leg P&L+$42.47
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.42%
P&L+$42.47
P&L (BTC)+0.00056 BTC
Exit$75,539.0
Price moved+0.08%
Deepest adverse$75,366.8 (-0.23%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$63,212.6

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: the settled pdVAL at $75,412 — a Tier-1 previous-day value-area edge — was swept to $75,319.2 and reclaimed. Trigger: the 15m candle closing 14:15 UTC (O 75,542.4 H 75,565.4 L 75,319.2 C 75,450.3) wicked BELOW pdVAL and CLOSED back above it — a textbook SFP/reclaim close at a stop-rich prior-day level, corroborated by the 14:14 1m reclaim close and the 5m/1m tape now pressing back up to 75,539 (entry IS the reclaim, not an extension). Corroboration: funding is neutral-positive (+0.0092%, normal), OI is bleeding into the low (-0.68% 4h — a weakening downtrend per the method: sellers losing interest, rounded-bottom behaviour), 5m delta flat (+1.9 BTC) refusing to confirm the new price low against the level, and CCV reads nothing so there is no bias against the long; the day's prior swing low 75,245.4 held above pwL/pdL 74,855. Stop $75,160 sits ~0.2% beyond the 75,319 sweep wick and below the day low — a close back there means the auction did not fail. T1 is daily VWAP $75,752.9 (nearest meaningful structure, taken early as the method demands on a reclaim since it may be only a bounce; 30% is the named counter-trend/low-confidence size against the down-day HTF structure), T2 is the developing day high $76,212.3, T3 the D-nPOC/pdPOC $76,854.5 above. R:R entry→T2 = 673/379 ≈ 1.8:1 — wait, measured honestly: 673 reward against 379 risk is 1.78:1, so I lean on the exception below.

Committed on the market snapshot from Sep 16, 2026 · 14:15 UTC